School of Public Health, Shantou University, 234 Daxue Road, Shantou, 515063, China.
Shantou Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Institute, Shantou, China.
BMC Public Health. 2024 May 30;24(1):1454. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-18956-2.
Various measures taken against the COVID-19 pandemic are not only effective in reducing the spread of the disease, but also lead to some unexpected results. This article regarded these measures as an intervention and explored their impact on the incidence of tuberculosis in Shantou, China.
The incidence rate and the surveillance data of tuberculosis from January 1st, 2018 to December 31st, 2021 were provided by the Shantou Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Institute. Data were divided into pre-pandemic period (January 1st, 2018 - December 31st, 2019) and pandemic periods (January 1st, 2020 - December 31st, 2021). The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) was used to analyze the trend of tuberculosis incidence prior to and during the COVID-19 epidemic.
The results showed that the incidence of tuberculosis cases in Shantou decreased significantly (p < 0.05) during the pandemic as compared to that prior to the pandemic. Among them, the 45-64 age group and the 65 + age group have statistically significant declines. When patients were stratified by occupation, the unemployed and those working in agriculture reduced the most.
In response to the pandemic, measures like lockdowns and quarantines seem to have reduced tuberculosis incidence. However, this does not imply a true decrease. Underlying causes for the reduced true incidence need further scrutiny. Findings offer a preliminary exploration of interventions designed for one disease but functioning as unexpected results for another.
针对 COVID-19 大流行采取的各种措施不仅有效减少了疾病的传播，而且还产生了一些意想不到的结果。本文将这些措施视为一种干预措施，探讨了它们对中国汕头结核病发病率的影响。
汕头结核病防治研究所提供了 2018 年 1 月 1 日至 2021 年 12 月 31 日结核病发病率和监测数据。数据分为大流行前（2018 年 1 月 1 日-2019 年 12 月 31 日）和大流行期间（2020 年 1 月 1 日-2021 年 12 月 31 日）。采用中断时间序列（ITS）分析 COVID-19 流行前后结核病发病率的趋势。
结果表明，与大流行前相比，汕头结核病病例的发病率在大流行期间显著下降（p<0.05）。其中，45-64 岁年龄组和 65+岁年龄组下降具有统计学意义。按职业分层时，失业者和农业劳动者减少最多。
针对疫情，封锁和隔离等措施似乎降低了结核病发病率。然而，这并不意味着真正的发病率下降。发病率下降的真正原因需要进一步研究。研究结果初步探索了针对一种疾病的干预措施，但却对另一种疾病产生了意想不到的结果。
