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预测老年人的成功老龄化似乎是可能的,甚至可以提前二十年预测。

Predicting successful ageing among older adults seems possible even as far as two decades ahead.

机构信息

The Wellbeing Services County of Southwest Finland, Turku University Hospital, Domain of General Practice and Rehabilitation, Turku, Finland.

Faculty of Medicine, Department of Clinical Medicine, Unit of Geriatric Medicine, University of Turku and Turku University Hospital, FI-20014, Turku, 20700, Finland.

出版信息

BMC Geriatr. 2024 Jun 1;24(1):481. doi: 10.1186/s12877-024-05109-8.

DOI:10.1186/s12877-024-05109-8
PMID:38824528
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11143575/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

Successful ageing is the term often used for depicting exceptional ageing and can be measured with multidimensional models including physical, psychological and social wellbeing. The aim of this study was to test multidimensional successful ageing models to investigate whether these models can predict successful ageing, and which individual subcomponents included in the models are most significantly associated with successful ageing.

METHODS

Successful ageing was defined as the ability to live at home without daily care at the age of 84 years or over. Data on the participants' physical, psychological and social wellbeing were gathered at baseline and the follow-up period was 20 years. Four successful ageing models were constructed. Backward stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to identify the individual subcomponents of the models which best predicted successful ageing.

RESULTS

All successful ageing models were able to predict ageing successfully after the 20-year follow-up period. After the backward stepwise logistic regression analysis, three individual subcomponents of four models remained statistically significant and were included in the new model: having no heart disease, having good self-rated health and feeling useful. As a model, using only these three subcomponents, the association with successful ageing was similar to using the full models.

CONCLUSIONS

Multidimensional successful ageing models were able to predict successful ageing after a 20-year follow-up period. However, according to the backward stepwise logistic regression analysis, the three subcomponents (absence of heart disease, good self-rated health and feeling useful) significantly associated with successful ageing performed as well as the multidimensional successful ageing models in predicting ageing successfully.

摘要

背景

成功老龄化是一个常用术语,用于描述卓越的老龄化,可以通过包括身体、心理和社会福利在内的多维模型来衡量。本研究旨在测试多维成功老龄化模型,以研究这些模型是否可以预测成功老龄化,以及模型中包含的哪些个体亚成分与成功老龄化最显著相关。

方法

成功老龄化被定义为在 84 岁或以上的年龄能够在家中生活而无需日常护理。在基线时收集了参与者的身体、心理和社会福利数据,随访期为 20 年。构建了四个成功老龄化模型。采用向后逐步逻辑回归分析来确定模型中最能预测成功老龄化的个体亚成分。

结果

所有成功老龄化模型都能够在 20 年的随访后成功预测老龄化。经过向后逐步逻辑回归分析,四个模型中的三个个体亚成分仍然具有统计学意义,并被纳入新模型:没有心脏病、自我感觉健康状况良好和感觉有用。作为一个模型,仅使用这三个亚成分,与使用完整模型的关联相似。

结论

多维成功老龄化模型能够在 20 年的随访后预测成功老龄化。然而,根据向后逐步逻辑回归分析,与成功老龄化显著相关的三个亚成分(无心脏病、自我感觉健康状况良好和感觉有用)在预测成功老龄化方面与多维成功老龄化模型表现相当。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0832/11143575/5024a4506fa4/12877_2024_5109_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0832/11143575/5024a4506fa4/12877_2024_5109_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0832/11143575/5024a4506fa4/12877_2024_5109_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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