Molinari Rocco, Impicciatore Roberto, Ortensi Livia Elisa
Department of Statistical Sciences "Paolo Fortunati", University of Bologna, via delle Belle Arti 41, 40126, Bologna, Italy.
Eur J Popul. 2024 Jun 11;40(1):20. doi: 10.1007/s10680-024-09707-5.
We explore, using a unique survey dataset containing retrospective information on immigrants' legal status, the relationship between previous irregular experience-from arrival up to the first residence permit achievement-and fertility patterns among non-EU immigrant women in Italy. While competing hypotheses explaining migrants' fertility behaviour have been recurrently offered, there is a substantial lack of knowledge on the role of undocumented experience as a contextual barrier in shaping international migrants' family formation processes. We adopt a life-course approach, employing event history analysis and Poisson regression modelling, to investigate how irregularity among immigrant women intertwines with the timing of the first childbirth and the total number of births occurred in Italy. We find that irregular experience-as a time-dependent process-delays the transition to childbirth post-migration. Furthermore, having experienced irregular status reduces completed fertility, offering few possibilities to catch-up over the life-course with fertility levels of women continuously having the legal status. Findings suggest long-lasting effects of irregular status and the potential disruption of migrant's fertility induced by migration policies, admission systems, and regulation factors. The reduced possibility of legal entry channels and lack of migration policies for planning and managing migration into Italy may thus have an impact on family formation trajectories among international immigrant women.
我们利用一个独特的调查数据集（其中包含有关移民法律身份的回顾性信息），探究了意大利非欧盟移民女性此前从抵达至获得首个居住许可期间的非法经历与生育模式之间的关系。尽管人们反复提出了相互竞争的假说，用以解释移民的生育行为，但对于无合法身份经历作为塑造国际移民家庭形成过程的一种背景障碍所起的作用，仍存在大量知识空白。我们采用生命历程方法，运用事件史分析和泊松回归模型，来研究移民女性中的非法身份状况如何与首次生育时间以及在意大利生育的子女总数相互交织。我们发现，非法经历作为一个随时间变化的过程，会推迟移民后向生育的转变。此外，有过非法身份经历会降低生育总数，几乎没有机会在整个生命历程中赶上始终拥有合法身份女性的生育水平。研究结果表明非法身份具有长期影响，以及移民政策、准入制度和监管因素可能对移民生育造成干扰。因此，合法入境渠道的可能性降低以及缺乏规划和管理移民进入意大利的移民政策，可能会对国际移民女性的家庭形成轨迹产生影响。
