Department of Pancreatobiliary Surgery, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou 510060, PR China.
Department of Radiation Oncology, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy, Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou 510060, PR China.
Oral Oncol. 2024 Aug;155:106891. doi: 10.1016/j.oraloncology.2024.106891. Epub 2024 Jun 14.
To investigate the epidemiological trend for nasopharyngeal carcinoma among children and young adults and the disease burden they caused.
Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. A comprehensive analysis was performed, with age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). And decomposition and frontier analyses were done. Future trends were predicted using Bayesian age-period-cohort model.
Globally, there were decreases in the ASIR (EAPC -0.175, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: -0.352 to 0.002), ASMR (EAPC -2.681, 95 % CI: -2.937 to -2.424), and age-standardized DALYs rates (EAPC -2.643, 95 % CI: -2.895 to -2.391). However, the ASIR for males in global (EAPC 0.454, 95 % CI: 0.302 to 0.606), Asia (EAPC 0.782, 95 % CI: 0.610 to 0.954) and America (EAPC 0.448, 95 % CI: 0.379 to 0.517), as well as females in European (EAPC 0.595, 95 % CI: 0.479 to 0.712) and American (EAPC 0.369, 95 % CI: 0.324 to 0.415), showed an increasing trend. The future ASIR per 100,000 will likely show a slight upward trend in 2020 to 2040 (increased from 0.254 to 0.284), particularly among females (increased from 0.177 to 0.206), and a continued decline in ASMR for both sexes (decreased from 0.070 to 0.061).
Globally, NPC in children and young adults remains a major public health issue, with the global distribution and magnitude of the burden varies markedly, highlighting the need to formulate regional and population-based policies for primary prevention.
研究儿童和青年鼻咽癌的流行趋势及其造成的疾病负担。
数据来自 2019 年全球疾病负担（GBD）研究。采用综合分析方法，分析年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）和估计年变化百分比（EAPC）。并进行了分解和前沿分析。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测未来趋势。
全球范围内，ASIR（EAPC-0.175，95%置信区间[CI]：-0.352 至 0.002）、ASMR（EAPC-2.681，95%CI：-2.937 至-2.424）和年龄标准化 DALYs 率（EAPC-2.643，95%CI：-2.895 至-2.391）均呈下降趋势。然而，全球男性（EAPC0.454，95%CI：0.302 至 0.606）、亚洲男性（EAPC0.782，95%CI：0.610 至 0.954）和美洲男性（EAPC0.448，95%CI：0.379 至 0.517）、欧洲女性（EAPC0.595，95%CI：0.479 至 0.712）和美洲女性（EAPC0.369，95%CI：0.324 至 0.415）的 ASIR 呈上升趋势。2020 年至 2040 年，每 10 万人的预期 ASIR 可能呈轻微上升趋势（从 0.254 上升至 0.284），尤其是女性（从 0.177 上升至 0.206），男女 ASMR 持续下降（从 0.070 下降至 0.061）。
全球范围内，儿童和青年鼻咽癌仍是一个重大公共卫生问题，其全球分布和负担程度差异显著，这突出表明需要制定区域性和人群性的一级预防政策。
