Fedorov Nikolay, Muldashev Albert, Mikhaylenko Oksana, Zhigunova Svetlana, Baisheva Elvira, Shirokikh Pavel, Bikbaev Ilnur, Martynenko Vasiliy
Ufa Institute of Biology, Ufa Federal Research Centre, Russian Academy of Sciences, Ufa 450054, Russia.
Department of General and Analytical Chemistry, Ufa State Petroleum Technological University, Ufa 450064, Russia.
Plants (Basel). 2024 Jun 5;13(11):1563. doi: 10.3390/plants13111563.
An analysis of the current potential range of the Pleistocene relict plant species and modeling of changes in its future range under moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) climate change in the middle and second half of the 21st century were carried out. The MaxEnt program was used for modeling. Climate variables from CHELSA Bioclim, the global digital soil mapping system SoilGrids, and a digital elevation model were used as predictors. Modeling has shown that climate change will lead to a significant reduction in the suitability of habitat conditions by the mid-21st century. The predicted changes in the distribution of habitats of , a diagnostic species of calcareous mires and an indicator of their ecological state, indicate a possible strong transformation of wetland complexes in the Southern Urals region even under moderate climate change. A reduction in the distribution of at the eastern limit of its range will also be facilitated by more frequent extreme droughts. To maintain the distribution of on the eastern border of its range, a number of measures are proposed to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change, contributing to the preservation of the hydrological regime of calcareous mires.
对更新世残遗植物物种当前的潜在分布范围进行了分析，并对其在21世纪中叶和后半叶中等（RCP4.5）和强烈（RCP8.5）气候变化情景下未来分布范围的变化进行了建模。使用MaxEnt程序进行建模。来自CHELSA生物气候、全球数字土壤制图系统SoilGrids的气候变量以及数字高程模型被用作预测因子。建模结果表明，到21世纪中叶，气候变化将导致栖息地条件的适宜性显著降低。作为钙质沼泽的诊断物种及其生态状态指标，其栖息地分布的预测变化表明，即使在中等气候变化情况下，南乌拉尔地区的湿地复合体也可能发生强烈转变。其分布范围东部边界处该物种分布的减少也将因极端干旱频率增加而加剧。为了维持该物种在其分布范围东部边界的分布，提出了一些措施以减轻气候变化的负面影响，这有助于保护钙质沼泽的水文状况。
