Jiang Weixing, Zou Zuowei, Wen Li
Department of Urology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Department of Nuclear Medicine, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100021, China.
Discov Oncol. 2024 Jul 4;15(1):261. doi: 10.1007/s12672-024-01140-8.
Collecting duct carcinoma (CDC) is a rare histological type of renal cell carcinoma that lacks a prognostic prediction model. In this study, we developed a nomogram to predict the prognosis of CDC patients.
Data for patients (n = 247) diagnosed with CDC from 2004 to 2015 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and the patients were randomized into training (n = 165) and validation (n = 82) cohorts. Survival outcomes were evaluated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Significant variables determined by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to construct the nomogram. C-indexes and calibration plots were applied to evaluate the performance of the nomogram.
CDC patients had a median overall survival (OS) of 18.0 months (95% confidence interval: 13.7-22.3); 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS rates were 58.7%, 34.2%, and 29.4%, respectively. Independent prognostic factors, including age at diagnosis, tumor size, tumor grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, and surgery information, were identified by multivariate analysis. The nomogram was constructed based on significant factors in the training cohort. The C-indexes were 0.769 (training cohort) and 0.767 (validation cohort). The calibration curves for survival rates showed that the predicted and observed values were consistent.
This study constructed a nomogram to predict prognosis in patients with CDC. The nomogram performed well in predicting the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS, which can help doctors actively monitor and follow up patients.
集合管癌（CDC）是一种罕见的肾细胞癌组织学类型，缺乏预后预测模型。在本研究中，我们开发了一种列线图来预测CDC患者的预后。
从监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库中获取2004年至2015年诊断为CDC的患者（n = 247）的数据，并将患者随机分为训练组（n = 165）和验证组（n = 82）。采用Kaplan-Meier法评估生存结局。通过单因素和多因素Cox回归分析确定的显著变量用于构建列线图。应用C指数和校准图评估列线图的性能。
CDC患者的中位总生存期（OS）为18.0个月（95%置信区间：13.7 - 22.3）；1年、3年和5年OS率分别为58.7%、34.2%和29.4%。多因素分析确定了独立预后因素，包括诊断时年龄、肿瘤大小、肿瘤分级、T分期、N分期、M分期和手术信息。基于训练组中的显著因素构建列线图。C指数在训练组为0.769，在验证组为0.767。生存率的校准曲线显示预测值与观察值一致。
本研究构建了一种列线图来预测CDC患者的预后。该列线图在预测1年、3年和5年OS方面表现良好，有助于医生对患者进行积极监测和随访。
