Alagador Diogo
Biodiversity Chair, Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development (MED) & Institute for Global Change and Sustainability (CHANGE), University of Évora, Évora, Portugal.
Conserv Biol. 2025 Feb;39(1):e14315. doi: 10.1111/cobi.14315. Epub 2024 Jul 8.
Current rates of climate change and gloomy climate projections confront managers and conservation planners with the need to integrate climate change into already complex decision-making processes. Predicting and prioritizing climatically stable areas and the areas likely to facilitate adaptive species' range adjustments are important stages in maximizing conservation outcomes and rationalizing future land management. I determined, for the most threatened European terrestrial mammal species, the spatial adaptive trajectories (SATs) of highest expected persistence up to 2080. I devised simple spatial network indices for evaluation of species in those SATs: total persistence; proportion of SATs that offer in situ adaptation (i.e., stable refugia); number of SATs converging in a site; and relationship between SAT convergence and persistence and protected areas, the Natura 2000 and Emerald networks, and areas of low human disturbance. I compared the performance of high-persistence SATs with a scenario in which each species remained in the areas with the best climatic conditions in the baseline period. The 1000 most persistence SATs for each of the 39 species covered one fifth of Europe. The areas with the largest adaptive potential (i.e., high persistence, stability, and SAT convergence) did not always overlap for all the species. Predominantly, these regions were located in southwestern Europe, Central Europe, and Scandinavia, with some occurrences in Eastern Europe. For most species, persistence in the most climatically suitable areas during the baseline period was lower than within SATs, underscoring their reliance on adaptive movements. Importantly, conservation areas (particularly protected areas) covered only minor fractions of species persistence among SATs, and hubs of spatial climate adaptation (i.e., areas of high SAT convergence) were seriously underrepresented in most conservation areas. These results highlight the need to perform analyses on spatial species' dynamics under climate change.
当前的气候变化速度以及悲观的气候预测使管理者和保护规划者面临将气候变化纳入本就复杂的决策过程的需求。预测气候稳定区域以及可能促进适应性物种范围调整的区域，并对其进行优先排序，是实现保护成果最大化和使未来土地管理合理化的重要阶段。我针对欧洲最濒危的陆生哺乳动物物种，确定了到2080年预期持续性最高的空间适应轨迹（SATs）。我设计了简单的空间网络指数来评估这些SATs中的物种：总持续性；提供原地适应（即稳定避难所）的SATs比例；汇聚于某一地点的SATs数量；以及SAT汇聚与持续性和保护区、自然2000网络、翡翠网络以及低人类干扰区域之间的关系。我将高持续性SATs的表现与每个物种在基准期内留在气候条件最佳区域的情景进行了比较。39个物种中每个物种的1000条持续性最高的SATs覆盖了欧洲的五分之一。所有物种具有最大适应潜力（即高持续性、稳定性和SAT汇聚）的区域并不总是重叠的。主要来说，这些区域位于欧洲西南部、中欧和斯堪的纳维亚半岛，在东欧也有一些分布。对于大多数物种而言，在基准期内最适宜气候区域的持续性低于在SATs内的持续性，这突出了它们对适应性迁移的依赖。重要的是，保护区（特别是受保护区域）在SATs中仅覆盖了物种持续性的一小部分，并且空间气候适应的枢纽（即高SAT汇聚区域）在大多数保护区中严重缺乏代表性。这些结果凸显了对气候变化下空间物种动态进行分析的必要性。
