SLIIT Business School, Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology, Malabe, Sri Lanka.
Department of Information Management, SLIIT Business School, Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology, Malabe, Sri Lanka.
PLoS One. 2024 Jul 16;19(7):e0307071. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307071. eCollection 2024.
This study examines the determinants influencing the likelihood of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries seeking assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF, as a global institution, aims to promote sustainable growth and prosperity among its member countries by supporting economic strategies that foster financial stability and collaboration in monetary affairs. Utilising panel-probit regression, this study analyses data from thirty-nine SSA countries spanning from 2000 to 2022, focusing on twelve factors: Current Account Balance (CAB), inflation, corruption, General Government Net Lending and Borrowing (GGNLB), General Government Gross Debt (GGGD), Gross Domestic Product Growth (GDPG), United Nations Security Council (UNSC) involvement, regime types (Closed Autocracy, Electoral Democracy, Electoral Autocracy, Liberal Democracy) and China Loan. The results indicate that corruption and GDP growth rate have the most significant influence on the likelihood of SSA countries seeking IMF assistance. Conversely, factors such as CAB, UNSC involvement, LD and inflation show inconsequential effects. Notable, countries like Sudan, Burundi, and Guinea consistently rank high in seeking IMF assistance over various time frames within the observed period. Sudan emerges with a probability of more than 44% in seeking IMF assistance, holding the highest ranking. Study emphasises the importance of understanding SSA region rankings and the variability of variables for policymakers, investors, and international organisations to effectively address economic challenges and provide financial assistance.
本研究考察了影响撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）国家向国际货币基金组织（IMF）寻求援助的决定因素。IMF 作为一个全球性机构，旨在通过支持促进金融稳定和货币事务合作的经济战略，促进其成员国的可持续增长和繁荣。本研究利用面板概率回归分析了 2000 年至 2022 年期间来自 39 个 SSA 国家的数据，重点关注了 12 个因素：经常账户余额（CAB）、通货膨胀、腐败、政府净借贷（GGNLB）、政府总债务（GGGD）、国内生产总值增长率（GDPG）、联合国安全理事会（UNSC）参与度、政权类型（封闭独裁、选举民主、选举独裁、自由民主）和中国贷款。结果表明，腐败和 GDP 增长率对 SSA 国家寻求 IMF 援助的可能性影响最大。相反，CAB、UNSC 参与度、LD 和通货膨胀等因素的影响则不显著。值得注意的是，在观察期内的不同时间段内，苏丹、布隆迪和几内亚等国一直排在寻求 IMF 援助的前列。苏丹寻求 IMF 援助的概率超过 44%，排名最高。该研究强调了了解 SSA 地区排名和变量变化的重要性，以便政策制定者、投资者和国际组织能够有效应对经济挑战并提供金融援助。
