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应对双重冲击：新冠疫情和油价危机对非洲经济的影响

Coping with a dual shock: The economic effects of COVID-19 and oil price crises on African economies.

作者信息

Azomahou Théophile T, Ndung'u Njuguna, Ouédraogo Mahamady

机构信息

African Economic Research Consortium (AERC), Kenya.

University Clermont Auvergne, CERDI, France.

出版信息

Resour Policy. 2021 Aug;72:102093. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102093. Epub 2021 Apr 6.

DOI:10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102093
PMID:34725532
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8552539/
Abstract

Oil-dependent countries face a twin-shock: in addition to the COVID-19 outbreak, they are facing an oil price collapse. In this paper, we study the impact of this dual shock on the forecasted GDP growth in Africa using the COVID-19 outbreak as a natural experiment. We use the IMF World Economic Outlook's GDP growth forecasts before and after the outbreak. We find that COVID-19 related deaths result in -2.75 percentage points forecasted GDP growth loss in the all sample while oil-dependence induces -7.6 percentage points loss. We document that the joint shock entails higher forecasted growth loss in oil-dependent economies (-10.75 percentage points). Based on oil price forecasts and our empirical findings, we identify five recovery policies with high potential: social safety net policy, economic diversification, innovation and technological transformation, fiscal discipline, and climate-friendly recovery policy.

摘要

依赖石油的国家面临双重冲击

除了新冠疫情爆发外，它们还面临油价暴跌。在本文中，我们以新冠疫情爆发作为一项自然实验，研究这种双重冲击对非洲预测GDP增长的影响。我们使用了国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》中疫情爆发前后的GDP增长预测。我们发现，在所有样本中，与新冠疫情相关的死亡导致预测GDP增长损失2.75个百分点，而对石油的依赖则导致7.6个百分点的损失。我们记录到，这种联合冲击在依赖石油的经济体中导致更高的预测增长损失（10.75个百分点）。基于油价预测和我们的实证研究结果，我们确定了五项具有高潜力的复苏政策：社会安全网政策、经济多元化、创新与技术转型、财政纪律以及气候友好型复苏政策。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e4ff/8552539/b9ca50ecfcaa/gr10_lrg.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e4ff/8552539/a031a0081e98/gr9_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e4ff/8552539/b9ca50ecfcaa/gr10_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e4ff/8552539/ecbad5b20f61/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e4ff/8552539/380d8d6f6d12/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e4ff/8552539/0d79466a290f/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e4ff/8552539/fcea5584057d/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e4ff/8552539/544bfaff1a7a/gr5_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e4ff/8552539/a7b1e92a89b7/gr6_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e4ff/8552539/93e9d2a7c0fc/gr7_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e4ff/8552539/6dd4fe97e0cc/gr8_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e4ff/8552539/a031a0081e98/gr9_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e4ff/8552539/b9ca50ecfcaa/gr10_lrg.jpg

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Will COVID-19 Have Long-Lasting Effects on Inequality? Evidence from Past Pandemics.新冠疫情会对不平等现象产生长期影响吗？来自以往大流行病的证据。
J Econ Inequal. 2022;20(4):811-839. doi: 10.1007/s10888-022-09540-y. Epub 2022 Apr 14.
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COVID-19: Unpacking the low number of cases in Africa.新冠肺炎：剖析非洲确诊病例数较少的原因
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The sources of the Kuznets relationship between the COVID-19 mortality rate and economic performance.新冠疫情死亡率与经济表现之间库兹涅茨关系的来源。
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