Can genomics and meteorology predict outbreaks of legionellosis in urban settings?

is ubiquitous and sporadically infects humans causing Legionnaire's disease (LD). Globally, reported cases of LD have risen fourfold from 2000 to 2014. In 2016, Sydney, Australia was the epicenter of an outbreak caused by serogroup 1 (Lpsg1). Whole-genome sequencing was instrumental in identifying the causal clone which was found in multiple locations across the city. This study examined the epidemiology of Lpsg1 in an urban environment, assessed typing schemes to classify resident clones, and investigated the association between local climate variables and LD outbreaks. Of 223 local Lpsg1 isolates, we identified dominant clones with one clone isolated from patients in high frequency during outbreak investigations. The core genome multi-locus sequence typing scheme was the most reliable in identifying this Lpsg1 clone. While an increase in humidity and rainfall was found to coincide with a rise in LD cases, the incidence of the major outbreak clone did not link to weather phenomena. These findings demonstrated the role of high-resolution typing and weather context assessment in determining source attribution for LD outbreaks in urban settings, particularly when clinical isolates remain scarce.IMPORTANCEWe investigated the genomic and meteorological influences of infections caused by in Sydney, Australia. Our study contributes to a knowledge gap of factors that drive outbreaks of legionellosis compared to sporadic infections in urban settings. In such cases, clinical isolates can be rare, and thus, other data are needed to inform decision-making around control measures. The study revealed that core genome multi-locus sequence typing is a reliable and adaptable technique when investigating Lpsg1 outbreaks. In Sydney, the genomic profile of Lpsg1 was dominated by a single clone, which was linked to numerous community cases over a period of 40 years. Interestingly, the peak in legionellosis cases during Autumn was not associated with this prevalent outbreak clone. Incorporating meteorological data with Lpsg1 genomics can support risk assessment strategies for legionellosis in urban environments, and this approach may be relevant for other densely populated regions globally.