Hunan Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Ecological Environment in Dongting Lake Area, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China.
Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 May 12;19(10):5902. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19105902.
Based on the downscaling data of multi-model ensembles of 26 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, this study calculated the extreme climate indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices and the warm winter extreme grade indices to explore winter climate response on the Chinese mainland under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways. The results showed that the temperature in winter increased overall, with the highest temperature increases of 0.31 °C/10a (Celsius per decade) (SSP245) and 0.51 °C/10a (SSP585) and the lowest temperature increases of 0.30 °C/10a (SSP245) and 0.49 °C/10a (SSP585). Warm-related extreme weather events such as warm days and warm spell duration indices showed an increasing trend, whereas cold-related extreme weather events such as cold spell duration indices, cold nights, ice days, and frost days showed a decreasing trend. On the regional scale, the maximum temperature increased by more than 2 °C/10a (SSP245) and 0.4 °C/10a (SSP585), except in South China, and the minimum temperature increased faster in Qinghai-Tibet and Northeast China compared to elsewhere on the Chinese mainland. Compared with that under SSP585, the frequency and intensity of warm winters in the latter half of the 21st century were lower under SSP245. At the end of the 21st century, under the SSP245 scenario, warm winter frequency in most regions will be reduced to below 60%, but under the SSP585 scenario, it will be more than 80%. Population exposures all showed a downward trend, mainly due to the reduction of warm winter events and the decline of the population under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. If the greenhouse gas emission path is controlled in the SSP245 scenario, the population exposure risk in warm winters can be decreased by 25.87%. This study observed a consistent warming trend on the Chinese mainland under all SSPs in the 21st century and found that stricter emission reduction policies can effectively decrease the population exposure to warm winters.
基于 26 个耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6）的多模式集合的降尺度数据，本研究计算了由气候变化检测和指数专家小组以及暖冬极端等级指数定义的极端气候指数，以探索不同共享社会经济路径（SSP）和代表性浓度路径下中国大陆的冬季气候响应。结果表明，冬季气温总体呈上升趋势，升温幅度最高的为 0.31°C/10a（SSP245 和 SSP585），最低的为 0.30°C/10a（SSP245）和 0.49°C/10a（SSP585）。暖相关极端天气事件，如暖日和暖期持续指数呈上升趋势，而冷相关极端天气事件，如冷期持续指数、冷夜、冰日和霜日呈下降趋势。在区域尺度上，除华南地区外，大部分地区的最高气温上升了 2°C/10a（SSP245）和 0.4°C/10a（SSP585），而青藏高原和东北地区的最低气温上升速度比中国大陆其他地区更快。与 SSP585 相比，21 世纪后半叶，SSP245 下暖冬的频率和强度较低。在 21 世纪末，在 SSP245 情景下，大多数地区的暖冬频率将降至 60%以下，但在 SSP585 情景下，将超过 80%。人口暴露度均呈下降趋势，主要是由于暖冬事件的减少以及 SSP245 和 SSP585 情景下人口的减少。如果温室气体排放路径控制在 SSP245 情景下，暖冬人口暴露风险可降低 25.87%。本研究观察到在 21 世纪所有 SSP 下中国大陆的一致变暖趋势，并发现更严格的减排政策可以有效降低人口对暖冬的暴露风险。
