School of Economics and Management, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, P.R. China.
Jiangxi Rural Revitalization Strategy Research Institute, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, P.R. China.
PLoS One. 2024 Jul 22;19(7):e0307490. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307490. eCollection 2024.
Using weekly data from January 2020 to December 2021 on the prices of various links in the Chinese broiler industry chain and the COVID-19 epidemic, we employed a time-varying parametric vector auto-regressive (TVP-VAR) model to investigate the dynamic effects of public health events on price fluctuations of upstream, midstream, and downstream products in the Chinese broiler industry chain. Our findings showed that the COVID-19 epidemic had different effects on the prices of various broiler products, both in direction and magnitude, at different lags and time intervals. Chicken and live chicken prices were impacted the most, followed by broiler chick prices, while broiler feed prices were impacted the least. The epidemic constantly impacted broiler chick and chicken prices, while its effect on live chicken prices was initially negative but turned positive afterwards. Additionally, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on broiler product prices consistently increased with more extended lag periods. The impulse responses at different epidemic time points were heterogeneous. With the results of this study, policy recommendations can be suggested to relevant government departments to optimize the prevention and control measures for public health emergencies and ensure price stability in the broiler industry.
利用 2020 年 1 月至 2021 年 12 月中国肉鸡产业链各环节价格的周度数据和新冠疫情数据，采用时变参数向量自回归（TVP-VAR）模型，研究公共卫生事件对中国肉鸡产业链上游、中游和下游产品价格波动的动态影响。研究结果表明，新冠疫情对不同肉鸡产品的价格在方向和幅度上都有不同的影响，在不同的时滞和时间间隔内。鸡肉和活鸡价格受影响最大，其次是肉鸡雏鸡价格，而肉鸡饲料价格受影响最小。疫情持续对肉鸡雏鸡和鸡肉价格产生影响，而对活鸡价格的影响最初是负面的，但后来转为正面。此外，新冠疫情对肉鸡产品价格的影响随着滞后期的延长而持续增加。不同疫情时点的脉冲响应是异质的。根据本研究的结果，可以向相关政府部门提出政策建议，以优化公共卫生突发事件的防控措施，确保肉鸡产业价格稳定。
