Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
Nat Commun. 2024 Jul 24;15(1):6238. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-50570-z.
Upwelling along oceanic eastern boundaries has attracted significant attention due to its profound effects on ocean productivity and associated biological and socioeconomic implications. However, uncertainty persists regarding the evolution of coastal upwelling with climate change, particularly its impact on future biological production. Here, using a series of state-of-the-art climate models, we identify a significant seasonal advancement and prolonged duration of upwelling in major upwelling systems. Nevertheless, the upwelling intensity (total volume of upwelled water) exhibits complex changes in the future. In the North Pacific, the upwelling is expected to attenuate, albeit with a minor magnitude. Conversely, in other basins, coastal upwelling diminishes significantly in equatorward regions but displays a slight decline or even an enhancement at higher latitudes. The climate simulations also reveal a robust connection between changes in upwelling intensity and net primary production, highlighting the crucial impact of future coastal upwelling alterations on marine ecosystems.
由于海洋东部边界上升流对海洋生产力和相关的生物及社会经济影响深远，因此引起了广泛关注。然而，对于气候变化下沿海上升流的演变，特别是其对未来生物生产力的影响，仍存在不确定性。在这里，我们使用一系列最先进的气候模型，确定了主要上升流系统中上升流的显著季节性推进和持续时间延长。然而，未来上升流强度（上升水量的总量）表现出复杂的变化。在北太平洋，上升流预计会减弱，尽管幅度较小。相反，在其他海域，赤道附近的沿海上升流明显减少，但在较高纬度地区则略有下降甚至增强。气候模拟还揭示了上升流强度变化与净初级生产力之间的稳健联系，突出了未来沿海上升流变化对海洋生态系统的关键影响。
