Patten Michael A, Burger Jutta C
Faculty of Biosciences and Aquaculture, Ecology Research Group, Nord University, Steinkjer, Trøndelag, Norway.
California Invasive Plant Council, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Biol Lett. 2024 Jul;20(7):20240054. doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2024.0054. Epub 2024 Jul 24.
As humans clear natural habitat, they are brought into increased conflict with wild animals. Some conflict is direct (e.g. elevated exposure of people to predators), some indirect (e.g. abandoning suitable habitat because of human activity). The magnitude of avoidance is expected to track frequency of human activity, but the type of response is an open question. We postulated that animals do not respond passively to increased disturbance nor does response follow a power law; instead, their ability to estimate magnitude leads to 'discounting' behaviour, as in classic time-to-reward economic models in which individuals discount larger value (or risk) in more distant time. We used a 10-year camera dataset from southern California to characterize response curves of seven mammal species. Bayesian regressions of two non-discounting models (exponential and inverse polynomial) and two discounting models (hyperbolic and harmonic) revealed that the latter better fit response curves. The Arps equation, from petroleum extraction modelling, was used to estimate a discount exponent, a taxon-specific 'sensitivity' to humans, yielding a general model across species. Although discounting can mean mammal activity recovers rapidly after disturbance, increased recreational pressure on reserves limits recovery potential, highlighting a need to strike a balance between animal conservation and human use.
随着人类清除自然栖息地，他们与野生动物的冲突日益增加。一些冲突是直接的（例如人们接触食肉动物的机会增加），一些是间接的（例如由于人类活动而放弃适宜的栖息地）。预计回避的程度会随着人类活动频率而变化，但反应的类型仍是一个悬而未决的问题。我们推测，动物不会被动地应对干扰增加，其反应也不遵循幂律；相反，它们估计程度的能力会导致“贴现”行为，就像经典的奖励时间经济模型那样，个体在更遥远的时间里会对更大的价值（或风险）进行贴现。我们使用了来自南加州的一个长达10年的相机数据集来描绘7种哺乳动物的反应曲线。对两个非贴现模型（指数模型和反多项式模型）以及两个贴现模型（双曲线模型和谐波模型）的贝叶斯回归分析表明，后两种模型能更好地拟合反应曲线。我们使用石油开采建模中的阿尔普斯方程来估计贴现指数，即一个分类群对人类的特定“敏感度”，从而得出一个适用于所有物种的通用模型。尽管贴现可能意味着哺乳动物的活动在受到干扰后能迅速恢复，但保护区娱乐压力的增加限制了恢复潜力，这凸显了在动物保护和人类利用之间取得平衡的必要性。
