Schofield C J, Matthews J N
J Trop Med Hyg. 1985 Jun;88(3):211-22.
Dispersive flight by Triatoma infestans was modelled by assuming either unidirectional flight in a straight line, or that flight followed a pattern of 'random walk' analogous to two-dimensional Brownian motion. Parameter estimates for the models were derived from previous fieldwork in Argentina and Brazil. Calculated probabilities of houses becoming infested over a 1 year period were compared with actual changes of house infestation in a small farming community in central Brazil. It was found that infestation could be explained partly by the dispersive flight of the bugs according to the distances between houses, and partly by the predisposition of houses to infestation by virtue of their construction, since houses with cracked mud walls were particularly susceptible to infestation. Infested houses lying more than 200 m from uninfested houses appeared to make an almost negligible contribution to infestation of the uninfested houses. This suggests that buffer zones of this size around treated areas could help to minimize the risk of reinfestation after treatment.
通过假设大劣按蚊要么沿直线单向飞行，要么其飞行遵循类似于二维布朗运动的“随机游走”模式，对其扩散飞行进行了建模。模型的参数估计来自之前在阿根廷和巴西的实地调查。将计算得出的房屋在1年时间内被感染的概率与巴西中部一个小农业社区房屋感染情况的实际变化进行了比较。研究发现，房屋感染情况部分可以通过虫子根据房屋之间的距离进行扩散飞行来解释，部分可以通过房屋因其建筑结构而易于感染来解释，因为泥墙有裂缝的房屋特别容易受到感染。距离未感染房屋超过200米的感染房屋似乎对未感染房屋的感染贡献几乎可以忽略不计。这表明在处理区域周围设置这种规模的缓冲区有助于将处理后再次感染的风险降至最低。
