Valiati Naiara C M, Rice Benjamin, Villela Daniel A M
National School of Public Health Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
R Soc Open Sci. 2024 Jul 3;11(7):231764. doi: 10.1098/rsos.231764. eCollection 2024 Jul.
The evidence of seasonal patterns in malaria epidemiology in the Brazilian Amazon basin indicates the need for a thorough investigation of seasonality in this last and heterogeneous region. Additionally, since these patterns are linked to climate variables, malaria models should also incorporate them. This study applies wavelet analysis to incidence data from 2003 to 2020 in the Epidemiological Surveillance System for Malaria (SIVEP-Malaria) database. A mathematical model with climate-dependent parametrization is proposed to study counts of malaria cases over time based on notification data, temperature and rainfall. The wavelet analysis reveals marked seasonality in states Amazonas and Amapá throughout the study period, and from 2003 to 2012 in Pará. However, these patterns are not as marked in other states such as Acre and Pará in more recent years. The wavelet coherency analysis indicates a strong association between incidence and temperature, especially for the municipalities of Macapá and Manaus, and a similar association for rainfall. The mathematical model fits well with the observed temporal trends in both municipalities. Studies on climate-dependent mathematical models provide a good assessment of the baseline epidemiology of malaria. Additionally, the understanding of seasonality effects and the application of models have great potential as tools for studying interventions for malaria control.
巴西亚马逊流域疟疾流行病学中的季节性模式证据表明，有必要对这一最后且异质性的地区的季节性进行全面调查。此外，由于这些模式与气候变量相关，疟疾模型也应纳入这些变量。本研究将小波分析应用于疟疾流行病学监测系统（SIVEP-疟疾）数据库中2003年至2020年的发病率数据。提出了一个具有气候依赖参数化的数学模型，以根据通报数据、温度和降雨量研究随时间变化的疟疾病例数。小波分析揭示了在整个研究期间，亚马逊州和阿马帕州存在明显的季节性，在2003年至2012年期间帕拉州也存在明显季节性。然而，近年来在其他州，如阿克里州和帕拉州，这些模式并不那么明显。小波相干分析表明发病率与温度之间存在很强的关联，特别是对于马卡帕和马瑙斯市，降雨量也有类似关联。该数学模型与这两个城市观察到的时间趋势拟合良好。对气候依赖数学模型的研究为疟疾的基线流行病学提供了良好的评估。此外，对季节性影响的理解以及模型的应用作为研究疟疾控制干预措施的工具具有巨大潜力。
