Department of Thoracic Surgery, Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China; Department of Thoracic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province, China.
Department of Thoracic Surgery, Huaxin Hospital, First Hospital of Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Clinics (Sao Paulo). 2024 Jul 29;79:100433. doi: 10.1016/j.clinsp.2024.100433. eCollection 2024.
Currently, the incidence of esophageal cancer continues to rise around the world. Because of its good early prognosis, it is of great significance to establish an effective model for predicting the survival of EC patients. The purpose of this study was to predict survival after diagnosis in Esophageal Cancer (EC) patients by constructing a valid clinical nomogram. In this study, 5037 EC patient samples diagnosed from 2010 to 2015 were screened by accessing the SEER database, and 8 independent prognostic factors were screened by various methods, and Cox multivariate regression was included to construct a prognostic model and nomogram for esophageal cancer. to estimate esophageal cancer recurrence and overall survival. Calibration of the nomogram predicted probabilities of 1-year, 3-year and 5-year survival probability, which were closely related to actual survival. In conclusion, this study validated that the column-line graphical model can be considered an individualized quantitative tool for predicting the prognosis of patients with EC in order to assist clinicians in making therapeutic decisions.
目前，食管癌的发病率在全球范围内仍持续上升。由于其具有较好的早期预后，因此建立一种有效的 EC 患者生存预测模型具有重要意义。本研究旨在通过构建有效的临床列线图来预测食管癌（EC）患者的生存情况。本研究通过访问 SEER 数据库筛选了 2010 年至 2015 年间诊断的 5037 例 EC 患者样本，并通过各种方法筛选出 8 个独立的预后因素，纳入 Cox 多因素回归构建食管癌预后模型和列线图，以估计食管癌复发和总生存情况。该列线图预测 1 年、3 年和 5 年生存率的概率与实际生存率密切相关。总之，本研究验证了列线图模型可以作为预测 EC 患者预后的个体化定量工具，以帮助临床医生做出治疗决策。
