Nguyen Duyen Thuy, Donnelly Michael, Hoang Minh Van, O'Neill Ciaran
Center for Public Health, School of Medicine, Dentistry and Biomedical Sciences, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, United Kingdom.
Center for Population Health Sciences, Hanoi University of Public Health, North Tu Liem district, Hanoi, Vietnam.
PLoS One. 2024 Aug 1;19(8):e0308218. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0308218. eCollection 2024.
In 2018, Scotland became the second country to implement minimum unit pricing (MUP) for all types of alcoholic beverages. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of the policy.
Three national household-level surveys were used: Scottish Health Surveys (2008-2021), Health Surveys in England (2011-2019), and Northern Ireland Continuous Household Survey (2011-2015). First, a generalized ordered logistic model examined patterns of drinking solely in Scotland from 2008-2021 covering current drinking, drinking categories and the weekly consumption (in alcohol units). Secondly, difference-in-difference (DID) analysis was employed to examine changes in "social drinking" behaviours in Scotland after the announcement in 2012 (2011-2015, Northern Ireland and England as comparators) and after the adoption of the policy in 2018 (England as a comparator, with two timeframes 2016-2019 and 2013-2019).
Overall, drinking in Scotland began to decline prior to 2012 and dropped further with the enactment of MUP in 2018. In response to MUP, the likelihood of abstention increased along with a slight decrease in the prevalence of heavy drinking. The overall amount of drinking fell by about 8% after 2012 and 12% after 2018 (as compared to 2008-2011 level), with a significant decline seen in moderate drinkers but not of those who drank at hazardous or harmful levels. The DID analyses confirmed the reduction in current drinking in Scotland starting since 2012 and continued post-MUP in 2018.
This study points to the impact of MUP in Scotland with a potential role for 'policy signalling' by the Scottish Government's with a multiple-buy discount ban and MUP's announcement since 2011-2012. Indications of impact include a clear decline in alcohol consumption levels and a small but noteworthy change in prevalence of overall drinking and heavy drinking.
2018年，苏格兰成为第二个对所有类型酒精饮料实施最低单位定价（MUP）的国家。本研究的目的是考察该政策的效果。
使用了三项全国家庭层面的调查：苏格兰健康调查（2008 - 2021年）、英格兰健康调查（2011 - 2019年）以及北爱尔兰连续家庭调查（2011 - 2015年）。首先，一个广义有序逻辑模型研究了2008 - 2021年期间仅在苏格兰的饮酒模式，涵盖当前饮酒情况、饮酒类别以及每周饮酒量（以酒精单位计）。其次，采用差分法（DID）分析来考察2012年宣布该政策后（以2011 - 2015年的北爱尔兰和英格兰作为对照）以及2018年该政策实施后（以英格兰作为对照，有2016 - 2019年和2013 - 2019年两个时间框架）苏格兰“社交饮酒”行为的变化。
总体而言，苏格兰的饮酒量在2012年之前就开始下降，并在2018年MUP政策颁布后进一步下降。作为对MUP的回应，戒酒的可能性增加，同时重度饮酒的患病率略有下降。2012年后饮酒总量下降了约8%，2018年后下降了12%（与2008 - 2011年水平相比），中度饮酒者的饮酒量显著下降，但危险或有害饮酒水平者的饮酒量未下降。DID分析证实了自2012年起苏格兰当前饮酒量的减少，并在2018年MUP政策实施后持续。
本研究指出了MUP在苏格兰的影响，自2011 - 2012年以来，苏格兰政府通过禁止多买折扣和宣布MUP政策，“政策信号”可能发挥了作用。影响迹象包括酒精消费水平明显下降，以及总体饮酒和重度饮酒患病率出现虽小但值得注意的变化。
