Zhang Qiuying, Chang Ping, Fu Dan, Yeager Stephen G, Danabasoglu Gokhan, Castruccio Frederic, Rosenbloom Nan
Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA.
Sci Adv. 2024 Aug 2;10(31):eado6298. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.ado6298.
Accurate prediction of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic on multiyear timescales is of paramount importance due to its notable impact on tropical cyclone activity. Recent advances in high-resolution climate predictions have demonstrated substantial improvements in the skill of multiyear SST prediction. This study reveals a notable enhancement in high-resolution tropical North Atlantic SST prediction that stems from a more realistic representation of the Atlantic Meridional Mode and the associated wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The key to this improvement lies in the enhanced surface wind response to changes in cross-equatorial SST gradients, resulting from Intertropical Convergence Zone bias reduction when atmospheric model resolution is increased, which, in turn, amplifies the positive feedback between latent and sensible surface heat fluxes and SST anomalies. These advances in high-resolution climate prediction hold promise for extending tropical cyclone forecasts at multiyear timescales.
由于热带北大西洋海表温度（SST）对热带气旋活动有显著影响，因此在多年时间尺度上准确预测该区域的海表温度至关重要。高分辨率气候预测的最新进展表明，多年海表温度预测技能有了显著提高。本研究揭示了高分辨率热带北大西洋海表温度预测的显著增强，这源于对大西洋经向模态及相关风 - 蒸发 - 海表温度反馈的更真实呈现。这种改进的关键在于，当大气模型分辨率提高时，热带辐合带偏差减小，使得地表风对跨赤道海表温度梯度变化的响应增强，进而放大了潜热和感热表面热通量与海表温度异常之间的正反馈。高分辨率气候预测的这些进展为在多年时间尺度上扩展热带气旋预报带来了希望。
