Ziska Lewis H, Parks Robbie M
Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Commun Med (Lond). 2024 Aug 3;4(1):158. doi: 10.1038/s43856-024-00584-x.
Dermal transfer of nicotine during tobacco harvest can cause green tobacco sickness (GTS), characterized by nausea, vomiting, headache and dizziness. Rainfall and high temperatures are etiological factors known to increase the prevalence of GTS. We analyzed recent and projected trends in these factors for major tobacco-growing regions to assess potential exacerbation in GTS occurrence.
We analyzed climate parameters, including recent trends (since the 1970s) in temperature and precipitation metrics during the tobacco harvest period for Southern Brazil; Yunnan Province, China; Andhra State, India; and North Carolina, USA. We applied Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) based scenarios for Tier 1 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), (SSPs of 1-2.6, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 from 2020 to 2100). Established protocol for nicotine dermal patches and temperature were used as a proxy to estimate potential nicotine absorption.
For three locations, cumulative maximum temperatures during harvest and temperature extremes rose significantly since the 1970s as did cumulative rainfall during harvest. Projected maximum temperatures at SSP 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 projections through 2100 did increase for all locations. Estimates of nicotine skin absorption with rising temperature show significant increases for both recent changes in three locations, and for all locations for SSP projections of 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 from 2020 to 2100.
This study across multiple continents, highlights a potential link between recent and projected anthropogenic change and potential increases in GTS risk. Under SSP 5-8.5, nicotine absorption could increase by ~50% by the end of the century, which may have widespread impacts on the incidence of GTS, especially among younger tobacco workers.
烟草收获期间尼古丁的皮肤转移可导致绿烟草病（GTS），其特征为恶心、呕吐、头痛和头晕。降雨和高温是已知会增加GTS患病率的病因因素。我们分析了主要烟草种植地区这些因素的近期和预测趋势，以评估GTS发生情况的潜在恶化。
我们分析了气候参数，包括巴西南部、中国云南省、印度安得拉邦和美国北卡罗来纳州烟草收获期（自20世纪70年代以来）温度和降水指标的近期趋势。我们应用了耦合模式比较计划第6阶段（CMIP6）中第1层情景模式比较项目（ScenarioMIP）基于共享社会经济路径（SSP）的情景（2020年至2100年的SSP 1-2.6、3-7.0和5-8.5）。使用既定的尼古丁皮肤贴片和温度方案作为估计潜在尼古丁吸收的替代指标。
对于三个地点，自20世纪70年代以来，收获期间的累积最高温度和极端温度显著上升，收获期间的累积降雨量也显著上升。到2100年，SSP 3-7.0和5-8.5预测的所有地点的预计最高温度确实有所上升。随着温度升高，尼古丁皮肤吸收的估计显示，三个地点的近期变化以及2020年至2100年SSP 3-7.0和5-8.5预测的所有地点均显著增加。
这项跨多个大陆的研究突出了近期和预测的人为变化与GTS风险潜在增加之间的潜在联系。在SSP 5-8.5情景下，到本世纪末尼古丁吸收可能增加约50%，这可能对GTS的发病率产生广泛影响，尤其是在年轻烟草工人中。
