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日本的人口困境:应对疫情后人口下降问题

Japan's Demographic Dilemma: Navigating the Postpandemic Population Decline.

作者信息

Kaneda Yudai, Yamashita Erika, Kaneda Uiri, Tanimoto Tetsuya, Ozaki Akihiko

机构信息

School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.

Medical Governance Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan.

出版信息

JMA J. 2024 Jul 16;7(3):403-405. doi: 10.31662/jmaj.2024-0010. Epub 2024 Jun 3.

Abstract

In recent years, Japan has faced a significant demographic crisis, which was further exacerbated by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. By 2022, the country experienced a 1.5% decrease in population, which is in contrast to other G7 nations, and had the highest rate of excess mortality among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. This crisis is mainly attributed to aging population, with Japan's aging rate reaching 29.9%, the highest among its peer countries. The Japanese government, led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, has proposed policies aimed at addressing these challenges, focusing on increasing fertility rates. Despite these efforts, an evidence-based policymaking (EBPM) analysis reveals that the anticipated impact on fertility rates is marginal, with financial interventions estimated to yield only a slight population increase by 2060. Furthermore, the analysis highlighted the need for a more comprehensive approach, indicating that addressing societal issues such as gender norms and workplace culture might be crucial for a sustainable solution to Japan's demographic challenges. This emphasizes the need for Japan to consider broader societal changes alongside fiscal policies to effectively combat its demographic decline.

摘要

近年来,日本面临着严重的人口危机,2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行进一步加剧了这一危机。到2022年,该国人口减少了1.5%,这与其他七国集团国家形成了对比,并且在经济合作与发展组织(OECD)国家中,日本的超额死亡率最高。这场危机主要归因于人口老龄化,日本的老龄化率达到29.9%,在同类型国家中位居榜首。由岸田文雄首相领导的日本政府提出了旨在应对这些挑战的政策,重点是提高生育率。尽管做出了这些努力,但基于证据的政策制定(EBPM)分析显示,对生育率的预期影响微乎其微,预计财政干预到2060年只会使人口略有增加。此外,分析强调需要采取更全面的方法,表明解决性别规范和职场文化等社会问题可能是可持续解决日本人口挑战的关键。这凸显了日本需要在财政政策之外考虑更广泛的社会变革,以有效应对其人口减少问题。

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