Introducing 'identification probability' for automated and transferable assessment of metabolite identification confidence in metabolomics and related studies.

Methods for assessing compound identification confidence in metabolomics and related studies have been debated and actively researched for the past two decades. The earliest effort in 2007 focused primarily on mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and resulted in four recommended levels of metabolite identification confidence - the Metabolite Standards Initiative (MSI) Levels. In 2014, the original MSI Levels were expanded to five levels (including two sublevels) to facilitate communication of compound identification confidence in high resolution mass spectrometry studies. Further refinement in identification levels have occurred, for example to accommodate use of ion mobility spectrometry in metabolomics workflows, and alternate approaches to communicate compound identification confidence also have been developed based on identification points schema. However, neither qualitative levels of identification confidence nor quantitative scoring systems address the degree of ambiguity in compound identifications in context of the chemical space being considered, are easily automated, or are transferable between analytical platforms. In this perspective, we propose that the metabolomics and related communities consider identification probability as an approach for automated and transferable assessment of compound identification and ambiguity in metabolomics and related studies. Identification probability is defined simply as 1/N, where N is the number of compounds in a reference library or chemical space that match to an experimentally measured molecule within user-defined measurement precision(s), for example mass measurement or retention time accuracy, etc. We demonstrate the utility of identification probability in an analysis of multi-property reference libraries constructed from the Human Metabolome Database and computational property predictions, provide guidance to the community in transparent implementation of the concept, and invite the community to further evaluate this concept in parallel with their current preferred methods for assessing metabolite identification confidence.