Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE-IPSL), UMR 8212 (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France.
BRGM, F-45060 Orléans, France.
Sci Adv. 2024 Aug 16;10(33):eadn5941. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adn5941. Epub 2024 Aug 14.
Rapid demographic growth in tropical islands can exacerbate conflicts and pressures on natural resources, as illustrated by the French island of Mayotte where resources are limited. In only 10 years, uncontrolled migration and population growth (+80% of population between 2002 and 2021) have led to a pronounced 3600% increase in deforestation rates (2010-2014) and an intensification of agricultural practices, escalating conflicts over limited land, water, and biodiversity resources. Implementing an original multi-proxy approach to sediment cores, our study reveals a staggering 300% acceleration in erosion during the first wave of migration (2011-2015), followed by a further 190% increase (2019-2021) under sustained migratory and demographic pressures. Sedimentary DNA analysis provided insights into increased connectivity and community changes. By 2050, the population of this region will increase by 74 and 103%, in Comoros and Madagascar islands, respectively. Urgent conservation measures are needed to avoid major socio-environmental crises and to protect resources for future generations.
热带岛屿的人口快速增长可能会加剧冲突和对自然资源的压力，法属马约特岛就是一个例子，该岛资源有限。仅在 10 年内，不受控制的移民和人口增长（2002 年至 2021 年间人口增长了 80%）导致森林砍伐率显著增加了 3600%（2010-2014 年），农业活动加剧，对有限的土地、水和生物多样性资源的冲突也在升级。通过对沉积物岩芯采用一种原始的多探针方法，我们的研究表明，在第一次移民浪潮期间（2011-2015 年），侵蚀速度惊人地加快了 300%，在持续的移民和人口压力下，进一步增加了 190%（2019-2021 年）。沉积物 DNA 分析提供了有关连通性和群落变化的见解。到 2050 年，科摩罗和马达加斯加岛的人口将分别增加 74%和 103%。需要采取紧急保护措施，以避免重大的社会-环境危机，并保护资源，造福子孙后代。
