Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHHS, Bethesda, Maryland.
Consultant to National Cancer Institute.
Radiat Res. 2024 Oct 1;202(4):626-638. doi: 10.1667/RADE-23-00117.1.
The present paper provides an overview of the methods and summarizes the results of estimating radiation doses and their uncertainties for Ukrainian-American epidemiological studies among the Chernobyl (Chornobyl) cleanup workers. After the Chernobyl accident occurred on April 26, 1986, more than 300,000 Ukrainian cleanup workers took part between 1986 and 1990 in decontamination and recovery activities at the site of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. The U.S. National Cancer Institute in collaboration with the Ukrainian National Research Center for Radiation Medicine conducted several epidemiological studies in this population. An important part of these studies was the reconstruction of the study participants' radiation doses and the assessment of uncertainties in doses. A method called realistic analytical dose reconstruction with uncertainty estimation (RADRUE) was used to calculate the doses from external irradiation during cleanup missions, which was the main exposure pathway for most study participants. At the initial phase of the accident during the atmospheric releases of radioactivity from the destroyed reactor, the cleanup workers also received doses from inhalation of radionuclides. In addition, study participants received doses at their places of residence, especially those who lived in highly contaminated areas. The radiation doses estimated for 2,048 male cleanup workers included in the Ukrainian-American epidemiological studies varied widely: (i) bone-marrow doses from external irradiation in the case-control study of leukemia of 1,000 cleanup workers ranged from 3.7 × 10-5 mGy to 3.3 Gy (mean = 92 mGy); (ii) thyroid doses in the case-control study of thyroid cancer in 607 persons from all exposure pathways combined were from 0.15 mGy to 9.0 Gy (mean = 199 mGy); (iii) gonadal doses in 183 cleanup workers from all exposure pathways combined in the study of germline mutations in the offspring after parental irradiation (trio study) ranged from 0.58 mGy to 4.1 Gy (mean = 392 mGy); (iv) thyroid doses in the human factor uncertainties study among 47 persons were from 20 mGy to 2.1 Gy (mean = 295 mGy); and (v) lung doses in the study of germline genetic variants associated with host susceptibility to COVID-19 estimated for 211 cleanup workers were from 0.024 mGy to 2.5 Gy (mean = 249 mGy). Doses of female cleanup workers were much lower than those of male cleanup workers: the mean doses for female cleanup workers were 27 mGy for 34 women included in the trio study and 56 mGy for 48 women participated in the study of germline genetic variants associated with host susceptibility to COVID-19. Uncertainties in dose estimates included two components: (i) inherent uncertainties arising from the stochastic random variability of the parameters used in exposure assessment and from a lack of knowledge about the true values of the parameters; and (ii) human factor uncertainties due to poor memory recall resulting in incomplete, inaccurate, or missing responses during personal interviews with cleanup workers conducted long after exposure. This paper also discusses possible developments and improvements in the methods to assess the radiation doses and associated uncertainties for cleanup workers.
本文概述了方法,并总结了用于估计乌克兰-美国切尔诺贝利(Chornobyl)清理工人流行病学研究中辐射剂量及其不确定性的结果。1986 年 4 月 26 日切尔诺贝利事故发生后,超过 30 万名乌克兰清理工人在 1986 年至 1990 年间参加了切尔诺贝利核电站现场的去污和恢复活动。美国国家癌症研究所与乌克兰国家辐射医学研究中心合作,在这一人群中开展了几项流行病学研究。这些研究的一个重要部分是重建研究参与者的辐射剂量,并评估剂量的不确定性。一种名为具有不确定性估计的现实分析剂量重建(RADRUE)的方法被用于计算清理任务期间外照射的剂量,这是大多数研究参与者的主要暴露途径。在事故的初始阶段,由于被毁反应堆的放射性物质大气释放,清理工人还会因吸入放射性核素而受到照射。此外,研究参与者在其居住地也受到照射,尤其是那些居住在高度污染地区的人。包括在乌克兰-美国流行病学研究中的 2048 名男性清理工人的辐射剂量变化很大:(i)1000 名清理工人中白血病病例对照研究中骨髓外照射剂量从 3.7×10-5 mGy 到 3.3 Gy(平均值=92 mGy);(ii)所有暴露途径合并的 607 名甲状腺癌病例对照研究中的甲状腺剂量为 0.15 mGy 至 9.0 Gy(平均值=199 mGy);(iii)所有暴露途径合并的 183 名清理工人的性腺剂量在父母照射后后代种系突变的研究(三人研究)中从 0.58 mGy 到 4.1 Gy(平均值=392 mGy);(iv)47 人人类因素不确定性研究中的甲状腺剂量从 20 mGy 到 2.1 Gy(平均值=295 mGy);(v)211 名清理工人中与 COVID-19 宿主易感性相关的种系遗传变异研究中的肺剂量从 0.024 mGy 到 2.5 Gy(平均值=249 mGy)。女性清理工人的剂量明显低于男性清理工人:三人研究中 34 名女性的平均剂量为 27 mGy,而与 COVID-19 宿主易感性相关的种系遗传变异研究中 48 名女性的平均剂量为 56 mGy。剂量估计的不确定性包括两个组成部分:(i)由于暴露评估中使用的参数的随机随机变异性以及对参数真实值的了解不足而产生的固有不确定性;(ii)由于暴露后长时间进行个人访谈时清理工人的记忆回忆不佳而导致的人为因素不确定性,从而导致不完全、不准确或缺失的回答。本文还讨论了评估清理工人辐射剂量及其相关不确定性的方法的可能发展和改进。