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切尔诺贝利事故后摄入放射性碘同位素导致的甲状腺暴露。报告 I:乌克兰-美国队列的修正剂量和相关不确定性。

Exposure to the Thyroid from Intake of Radioiodine Isotopes after the Chornobyl Accident. Report I: Revised Doses and Associated Uncertainties for the Ukrainian-American Cohort.

机构信息

State Institution "National Research Center for Radiation Medicine of the National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine", Kyiv, Ukraine.

Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHHS, Bethesda, Maryland.

出版信息

Radiat Res. 2023 Jan 1;199(1):61-73. doi: 10.1667/RADE-21-00152.1.

Abstract

Thyroid doses from intake of radioiodine isotopes (131I, 132Te+132I, and 133I) and associated uncertainties were revised for the 13,204 Ukrainian-American cohort members exposed in childhood and adolescence to fallout from the Chornobyl nuclear power plant accident. The main changes related to the revision of the 131I thyroid activity measured in cohort members, the use of thyroid-mass values specific to the Ukrainian population, and the revision of the 131I ground deposition densities in Ukraine. Uncertainties in doses were assessed considering shared and unshared errors in the parameters of the dosimetry model. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation procedure, 1,000 individual stochastic thyroid doses were calculated for each cohort member. The arithmetic mean of thyroid doses from intake of 131I, 132Te+132I, and 133I for the entire cohort was 0.60 Gy (median = 0.22 Gy). For 9,474 subjects (71.6% of the total), the thyroid doses were less than 0.5 Gy. Thyroid doses for 42 cohort members (0.3% of the total) exceeded 10 Gy while the highest dose was 35 Gy. Intake of 131I contributed around 95% to internal thyroid exposure from radioiodine isotopes. The geometric standard deviation of individual stochastic thyroid doses varied among cohort members from 1.4 to 4.3 with an arithmetic mean of 1.6 and a median of 1.4. It was shown that the contribution of shared errors to the dose uncertainty was small. The revised thyroid doses resulted, in average, in around 40% decrease for cohort members from Zhytomyr Oblast and an increase of around 24% and 35% for the cohort members from Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblast, respectively. Arithmetic mean of TD20 doses for the cohort was around 8% less than that estimated in TD10, 0.60 Gy vs. 0.65 Gy, respectively; however, global median of TD20 doses somewhat increased compared to TD10: 0.22 Gy vs. 0.19 Gy, respectively. The difference between TD10 and TD20 was mainly due to a revision of the individual 131I thyroid activity measured in the cohort members.

摘要

对 13204 名乌克兰裔美国人队列成员因吸入切尔诺贝利核事故沉降物而暴露于放射性碘同位素(131I、132Te+132I 和 133I)的甲状腺剂量及其相关不确定性进行了修订。主要的变化与修订队列成员中测量的 131I 甲状腺活动、使用特定于乌克兰人口的甲状腺质量值以及修订乌克兰的 131I 地面沉积密度有关。通过考虑剂量模型参数中的共享和非共享误差,评估了剂量不确定性。使用蒙特卡罗模拟程序,为每个队列成员计算了 1000 个个体随机甲状腺剂量。整个队列中 131I、132Te+132I 和 133I 摄入量引起的甲状腺剂量平均值为 0.60Gy(中位数=0.22Gy)。对于 9474 名受试者(总数的 71.6%),甲状腺剂量小于 0.5Gy。42 名队列成员(总数的 0.3%)的甲状腺剂量超过 10Gy,最高剂量为 35Gy。131I 的摄入量对放射性碘同位素引起的内部甲状腺暴露约占 95%。个体随机甲状腺剂量的几何标准差在队列成员之间从 1.4 到 4.3 不等,平均值为 1.6,中位数为 1.4。结果表明,共享误差对剂量不确定性的贡献很小。修订后的甲状腺剂量导致来自日托米尔州的队列成员平均减少约 40%,来自基辅和切尔尼戈夫州的队列成员分别增加约 24%和 35%。队列的 TD20 剂量平均值比 TD10 估计值低约 8%,分别为 0.60Gy 和 0.65Gy;然而,与 TD10 相比,TD20 的全球中位数略有增加:分别为 0.22Gy 和 0.19Gy。TD10 和 TD20 之间的差异主要归因于修订了队列成员中测量的个体 131I 甲状腺活动。

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