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用于科学决策的基于机器学习和快速数据处理的实时传染病耐力指标系统。

Real-time infectious disease endurance indicator system for scientific decisions using machine learning and rapid data processing.

作者信息

Dubey Shivendra, Verma Dinesh Kumar, Kumar Mahesh

机构信息

Computer Science and Engineering, Jaypee University of Engineering and Technology, Guna, Madhya Pradesh, India.

出版信息

PeerJ Comput Sci. 2024 Jul 30;10:e2062. doi: 10.7717/peerj-cs.2062. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 virus, which induces an acute respiratory illness commonly referred to as COVID-19, had been designated as a pandemic by the World Health Organization due to its highly infectious nature and the associated public health risks it poses globally. Identifying the critical factors for predicting mortality is essential for improving patient therapy. Unlike other data types, such as computed tomography scans, x-radiation, and ultrasounds, basic blood test results are widely accessible and can aid in predicting mortality. The present research advocates the utilization of machine learning (ML) methodologies for predicting the likelihood of infectious disease like COVID-19 mortality by leveraging blood test data. Age, LDH (lactate dehydrogenase), lymphocytes, neutrophils, and hs-CRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) are five extremely potent characteristics that, when combined, can accurately predict mortality in 96% of cases. By combining XGBoost feature importance with neural network classification, the optimal approach can predict mortality with exceptional accuracy from infectious disease, along with achieving a precision rate of 90% up to 16 days before the event. The studies suggested model's excellent predictive performance and practicality were confirmed through testing with three instances that depended on the days to the outcome. By carefully analyzing and identifying patterns in these significant biomarkers insightful information has been obtained for simple application. This study offers potential remedies that could accelerate decision-making for targeted medical treatments within healthcare systems, utilizing a timely, accurate, and reliable method.

摘要

严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)引发的急性呼吸道疾病通常被称为新冠肺炎,因其具有高度传染性以及在全球范围内带来的公共卫生风险,已被世界卫生组织列为大流行病。确定预测死亡率的关键因素对于改善患者治疗至关重要。与计算机断层扫描、x光辐射和超声波等其他数据类型不同,基本血液检测结果广泛可得,有助于预测死亡率。本研究主张利用机器学习(ML)方法,通过利用血液检测数据来预测新冠肺炎等传染病导致死亡的可能性。年龄、乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)、淋巴细胞、中性粒细胞和高敏C反应蛋白(hs-CRP)是五个非常有效的特征,综合起来可以在96%的病例中准确预测死亡率。通过将XGBoost特征重要性与神经网络分类相结合,最优方法能够以极高的准确率预测传染病导致的死亡率,并且在事件发生前16天内达到90%的精确率。研究表明,通过对三个取决于到结果天数的实例进行测试,证实了该模型出色的预测性能和实用性。通过仔细分析和识别这些重要生物标志物中的模式,已获得可简单应用的有洞察力的信息。本研究提供了潜在的解决方案,利用及时、准确和可靠的方法,可加快医疗系统中针对性医疗治疗的决策制定。

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