Newman Rebecca, Noy Ilan
Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 2 The Terrace, Wellington, 6140, New Zealand.
Victoria University of Wellington, 33 Bunny St., Wellington, 6011, New Zealand.
Nat Commun. 2023 Sep 29;14(1):6103. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-41888-1.
Extreme weather events lead to significant adverse societal costs. Extreme Event Attribution (EEA), a methodology that examines how anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions had changed the occurrence of specific extreme weather events, allows us to quantify the climate change-induced component of these costs. We collect data from all available EEA studies, combine these with data on the socio-economic costs of these events and extrapolate for missing data to arrive at an estimate of the global costs of extreme weather attributable to climate change in the last twenty years. We find that US[Formula: see text] 143 billion per year of the costs of extreme events is attributable to climatic change. The majority (63%), of this is due to human loss of life. Our results suggest that the frequently cited estimates of the economic costs of climate change arrived at by using Integrated Assessment Models may be substantially underestimated.
极端天气事件会导致巨大的社会负面成本。极端事件归因(EEA)是一种研究人为温室气体排放如何改变特定极端天气事件发生情况的方法,它使我们能够量化这些成本中由气候变化引起的部分。我们从所有可用的EEA研究中收集数据,将这些数据与这些事件的社会经济成本数据相结合,并对缺失数据进行外推,以估算过去二十年中可归因于气候变化的极端天气的全球成本。我们发现,极端事件成本中每年有1430亿美元可归因于气候变化。其中大部分(63%)是由于人员生命损失。我们的结果表明,使用综合评估模型得出的气候变化经济成本的常见估计可能被大幅低估了。