The Kirby Institute, Sydney, NSW.
Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT.
Med J Aust. 2024 Aug 19;221(4):217-223. doi: 10.5694/mja2.52400.
To estimate the number of people in Australia with long COVID by age group, and the associated medium term productivity and economic losses.
Modelling study: a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to estimate the number of people with long COVID over time following single infections, and a labour supply model to estimate productivity losses as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP).
Australia, 2022-2024.
Estimated number of people infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during 2022-2023 (based on serosurvey data) who have long COVID, 2022-2024, by age group; estimated GDP loss during 2022 caused by reduced labour supply attributable to long COVID.
Our model projected that the number of people with long COVID following a single infection in 2022 would peak in September 2022, when 310 341-1 374 805 people (1.2-5.4% of Australians) would have symptoms of long COVID, declining to 172 530-872 799 people (0.7-3.4%) in December 2024, including 7902-30 002 children aged 0-4 years (0.6-2.2%). The estimated mean labour loss attributable to long COVID in 2022 was projected to be 102.4 million (95% confidence interval [CI], 50.4-162.2 million) worked hours, equivalent to 0.48% (95% CI, 0.24-0.76%) of total worked hours in Australia during the 2020-21 financial year. The estimated mean GDP loss caused by the projected decline in labour supply and reduced use of other production factors was $9.6 billion (95% CI, $4.7-15.2 billion), or 0.5% of GDP. The estimated labour loss was greatest for people aged 30-39 years (27.5 million [95% CI, 16.0-41.0 million] hours; 26.9% of total labour loss) and people aged 40-49 years (24.5 million [95% CI, 12.1-38.7 million] hours; 23.9% of total labour loss).
Widespread SARS-CoV-2 infections in Australia mean that even a small proportion of infected people developing long COVID-related illness and disability could have important population health and economic effects. A paradigm shift is needed, from a sole focus on the immediate effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to preventing and treating COVID-19 and treating long COVID, with implications for vaccine and antiviral policy and other mitigation of COVID-19.
按年龄组估计澳大利亚长期新冠患者人数，以及与之相关的中期生产力和经济损失。
建模研究：使用易感性-暴露-感染-恢复（SEIR）模型估计单次感染后随时间推移出现长期新冠的人数，以及使用劳动力供应模型估计作为国内生产总值（GDP）一部分的生产力损失。
澳大利亚，2022-2024 年。
估计 2022-2023 年（基于血清学调查数据）感染严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2（SARS-CoV-2）的人群中，2022-2024 年按年龄组出现长期新冠的人数；2022 年因长期新冠导致劳动力供应减少而造成的 GDP 损失。
我们的模型预测，2022 年单次感染后出现长期新冠的人数将在 2022 年 9 月达到峰值，届时将有 310341-1374805 人（1.2%-5.4%的澳大利亚人）出现长期新冠症状，并在 2024 年 12 月下降至 172530-872799 人（0.7%-3.4%），包括 0-4 岁儿童 7902-30002 人（0.6%-2.2%）。预计 2022 年因长期新冠导致的平均劳动力损失预计为 1.024 亿（95%置信区间[CI]，5.04-1.622 亿）个工时，相当于澳大利亚 2020-21 财年总工时的 0.48%（95%CI，0.24%-0.76%）。预计因劳动力供应下降和其他生产要素使用减少而导致的预计 GDP 损失为 96 亿美元（95%CI，47-152 亿美元），或占 GDP 的 0.5%。劳动力损失最大的是 30-39 岁人群（2.75 亿工时；占总劳动力损失的 26.9%）和 40-49 岁人群（2.45 亿工时；占总劳动力损失的 23.9%）。
澳大利亚广泛的 SARS-CoV-2 感染意味着，即使一小部分感染新冠的人出现与长期新冠相关的疾病和残疾，也可能对人口健康和经济产生重要影响。需要从单纯关注 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的直接影响转变为预防和治疗 COVID-19 和治疗长期新冠，这对疫苗和抗病毒政策以及其他 COVID-19 缓解措施有影响。
