NL Biodiversity and Society Research Group, Naturalis Biodiversity Center, 2333 CR, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, 2333 CC, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Sci Rep. 2024 Aug 20;14(1):19315. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-64948-y.
Mosquitoes are important vectors of disease pathogens and multiple species are undergoing geographical shifts due to global changes. As such, there is a growing need for accurate distribution predictions. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) is an effective tool to assess mosquito distribution patterns and link these to underlying environmental preferences. Typically, macroclimatic variables are used as primary predictors of mosquito distributions. However, they likely undervalue local conditions and intraspecific variation in environmental preferences. This is problematic, as mosquito control takes place at the local scale. Utilising high-resolution (10 × 10 m) Maxent ENMs on the island of Bonaire as model system, we explore the influence of local environmental variables on mosquito distributions. Our results show a distinct set of environmental variables shape distribution patterns across ecologically-distinct species, with urban variables strongly associated with introduced species like Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus, while native species show habitat preferences for either mangroves, forests, or ephemeral water habitats. These findings underscore the importance of distinct local environmental factors in shaping distributions of different mosquitoes, even on a small island. As such, these findings warrant further studies aimed at predicting high-resolution mosquito distributions, opening avenues for preventative management of vector-borne disease risks amidst ongoing global change and ecosystem degradation.
蚊子是疾病病原体的重要载体，由于全球变化，多种蚊子物种正在发生地理转移。因此，人们越来越需要准确的分布预测。生态位模型（ENM）是评估蚊子分布模式并将其与潜在环境偏好联系起来的有效工具。通常，宏气候变量被用作蚊子分布的主要预测因子。然而，它们可能低估了局部条件和环境偏好的种内变异。这是有问题的，因为蚊子控制是在当地进行的。我们利用博奈尔岛的高分辨率（10×10 米）Maxent ENM 作为模型系统，探索了局部环境变量对蚊子分布的影响。我们的结果表明，一组独特的环境变量塑造了具有不同生态特征的物种的分布模式，城市变量与像埃及伊蚊和致倦库蚊这样的引入物种密切相关，而本地物种则表现出对红树林、森林或短暂水栖息地的偏好。这些发现强调了在塑造不同蚊子分布时，独特的局部环境因素的重要性，即使在一个小岛上也是如此。因此，这些发现值得进一步研究，旨在预测蚊子的高分辨率分布，为在全球变化和生态系统退化的背景下预防媒介传播疾病风险开辟途径。
