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在新冠疫情时代及之后的传染病动力学推断

Inference of epidemic dynamics in the COVID-19 era and beyond.

机构信息

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom.

出版信息

Epidemics. 2024 Sep;48:100784. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100784. Epub 2024 Jul 31.

DOI:10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100784
PMID:39167954
Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the key role that epidemiology and modelling play in analysing infectious threats and supporting decision making in real-time. Motivated by the unprecedented volume and breadth of data generated during the pandemic, we review modern opportunities for analysis to address questions that emerge during a major modern epidemic. Following the broad chronology of insights required - from understanding initial dynamics to retrospective evaluation of interventions, we describe the theoretical foundations of each approach and the underlying intuition. Through a series of case studies, we illustrate real life applications, and discuss implications for future work.

摘要

COVID-19 大流行表明,流行病学和建模在分析传染病威胁和实时支持决策方面发挥着关键作用。受大流行期间生成的前所未有的大量和广泛数据的推动,我们审查了现代分析机会,以解决在重大现代传染病中出现的问题。按照所需的广泛见解时间顺序 - 从了解初始动态到回顾性评估干预措施,我们描述了每种方法的理论基础和基本直觉。通过一系列案例研究,我们说明了实际应用,并讨论了对未来工作的影响。

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