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基于深度学习的外汇市场趋势预测模型:实际应用与性能评估。

Deep learning-based predictive models for forex market trends: Practical implementation and performance evaluation.

作者信息

Nguyen Phuong Dong, Thao Nguyen Ngoc, Kim Chi Duong Thi, Nguyen Hoa-Cuc, Mach Bich-Ngoc, Nguyen Thanh Q

机构信息

CIRTech Institute, HUTECH University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Dong Nai Provincial Police, Bien Hoa City, Dong Nai Province, Vietnam.

出版信息

Sci Prog. 2024 Jul-Sep;107(3):368504241275370. doi: 10.1177/00368504241275370.

Abstract

In recent years, there has been growing interest in the prediction of financial market trends, due to its potential applications in the real world. Unlike traditional investment avenues such as the stock market, the foreign exchange (Forex) market revolves around two primary types of orders that correspond with the market's direction: upward and downward. Consequently, forecasting the behaviour of the Forex behaviour market can be simplified into a binary classification problem to streamline its complexity. Despite the significant enhancements and improvements in performance seen in recent proposed predictive models for the forex market, driven by the advancement of deep learning in various domains, it remains imperative to approach these models with careful consideration of best practices and real-world applications. Currently, only a limited number of papers have been dedicated to this area. This article aims to bridge this gap by proposing a practical implementation of deep learning-based predictive models that perform well for real-world trading activities. These predictive mechanisms can help traders in minimising budget losses and anticipate future risks. Furthermore, the paper emphasises the importance of focussing on return profit as the evaluation metric, rather than accuracy. Extensive experimental studies conducted on realistic Yahoo Finance data sets validate the effectiveness of our implemented prediction mechanisms. Furthermore, empirical evidence suggests that employing the use of three-value labels yields superior accuracy performance compared to traditional two-value labels, as it helps reduce the number of orders placed.

摘要

近年来,由于其在现实世界中的潜在应用,人们对金融市场趋势预测的兴趣日益浓厚。与股票市场等传统投资渠道不同,外汇(Forex)市场围绕两种与市场方向相对应的主要订单类型展开:上涨和下跌。因此,预测外汇市场的行为可以简化为一个二元分类问题,以简化其复杂性。尽管受各领域深度学习进步的推动,近期针对外汇市场提出的预测模型在性能上有显著提升和改进,但在应用这些模型时,仍必须谨慎考虑最佳实践和实际应用。目前,仅有少数论文专注于这一领域。本文旨在通过提出一种基于深度学习的预测模型的实际实施方案来弥合这一差距,该模型在实际交易活动中表现良好。这些预测机制可以帮助交易者将预算损失降至最低,并预测未来风险。此外,本文强调将回报利润作为评估指标而非准确性的重要性。对真实的雅虎财经数据集进行的广泛实验研究验证了我们实施的预测机制的有效性。此外,实证证据表明,与传统的二值标签相比,采用三值标签能产生更高的准确率,因为它有助于减少下单数量。

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