2013-2020 年印度尼西亚东南苏拉威西省科拉卡县气候变量与结核病的关系：贝叶斯自回归模型。
The association between climate variables and tuberculosis in Kolaka District, Southeast Sulawesi Province, Indonesia, 2013-2020: a Bayesian autoregressive model.
机构信息
Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, Halu Oleo University, Kendari, South East Sulawesi, 90232, Indonesia.
Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Sciences, Halu Oleo University, Kendari, South East Sulawesi, 90232, Indonesia.
出版信息
F1000Res. 2024 Jun 21;12:1507. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.138859.2. eCollection 2023.
BACKGROUND
Tuberculosis is one of the diseases that requires comprehensive treatment. This disease is highly contagious and can be transmitted through the air. Climate factors play a role in the increasing cases of tuberculosis. This study aimed to determine the correlation between climatic variables and TB in Kolaka District, Southeast Sulawesi Province, Indonesia.
METHODS
This research was modeled using an autoregressive (AR) Bayesian model with three possible likelihoods; Gaussian, Poisson and Negative Binomial responses.
RESULTS
Minimum temperature and average temperature, a coefficient of 4.234 suggests that for every 1 degree increase in minimum temperature, there is an estimated increase of approximately four cases, assuming other variables remain constant. Maximum temperature, a coefficient of 17.851 suggests that for every 1 degree increase in maximum temperature, there is an estimated increase of around 17-18 cases, assuming other variables remain constant. Humidity, a coefficient of -13.413 suggests that for every 1% increase in humidity, there is an estimated decrease of around 13 cases, assuming other variables remain constant. Rainfall, a coefficient of -0.327 suggests that for every 1 mm increase in rainfall, there is an estimated decrease of around 0.327 cases, assuming other variables remain constant. Light, a coefficient of -4.322 suggests that for every 1-hour increase in light duration, there is an estimated decrease of around four cases, assuming other variables remain constant.
CONCLUSIONS
Climate change has a significant impact on tuberculosis through temperature-related factors. These factors influence the prevalence, spread, and vulnerability to TB. Addressing these challenges requires a holistic approach involving adaptation planning. Strong public health systems and healthcare infrastructure can help mitigate the risks and impacts of climate change-related tuberculosis.
背景
结核病是需要综合治疗的疾病之一。这种疾病具有高度传染性，可以通过空气传播。气候因素在结核病病例增加方面发挥了作用。本研究旨在确定印度尼西亚东南苏拉威西省科拉卡县气候变量与结核病之间的相关性。
方法
本研究采用自回归（AR）贝叶斯模型进行建模，有三种可能的似然性；高斯、泊松和负二项式响应。
结果
最低温度和平均温度，系数为 4.234，表明在其他变量保持不变的情况下，最低温度每升高 1 度，估计会增加大约 4 例。最高温度，系数为 17.851，表明在其他变量保持不变的情况下，最高温度每升高 1 度，估计会增加约 17-18 例。湿度，系数为-13.413，表明在其他变量保持不变的情况下，湿度每增加 1%，估计会减少约 13 例。降雨量，系数为-0.327，表明在其他变量保持不变的情况下，降雨量每增加 1 毫米，估计会减少约 0.327 例。光照，系数为-4.322，表明在其他变量保持不变的情况下，光照时间每增加 1 小时，估计会减少约 4 例。
结论
气候变化通过与温度相关的因素对结核病产生重大影响。这些因素影响着结核病的流行率、传播和易感性。应对这些挑战需要采取整体方法，包括适应规划。强大的公共卫生系统和医疗保健基础设施可以帮助减轻与气候变化相关的结核病的风险和影响。
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