Shipping Economics and Management College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, China.
Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Aug 27;19(8):e0306724. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0306724. eCollection 2024.
With the gradual rise of the supply chain financial model and the expansion of scale, credit risk and contagion effects are gradually strengthened as business and financial links between upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain. The traditional credit risk contagion assessment model based on the financial status of an enterprise and the pledging of fixed assets has been unable to meet the basic needs of modern supply chain companies and financial institutions for risk control. Therefore, this paper introduces the Cox-Copula model to comprehensively assess a company's financial situation and the business health of upstream and downstream companies in the supply chain from the perspective of actual transactions between companies and fixed asset pledges. The study found that credit risk has a contagion effect in supply chain enterprises, and this contagion effect of credit risk has certain dynamic characteristics. At the same time, it was found that the impacts of macroeconomic factors and microfinance factors on credit risk contagion of supply chain finance have differences in the two dimensions of degree and direction of action.
随着供应链金融模式的逐步兴起和规模的扩大，供应链上下游企业之间的业务和金融联系使得信用风险和传染效应逐渐增强。传统的基于企业财务状况和固定资产抵押的信用风险传染评估模型已经无法满足现代供应链公司和金融机构的基本风险控制需求。因此，本文引入 Cox-Copula 模型，从企业间实际交易和固定资产抵押的角度，全面评估企业的财务状况和供应链中上下游企业的业务健康状况。研究发现，供应链企业的信用风险具有传染性，这种信用风险的传染效应具有一定的动态特征。同时，还发现宏观经济因素和微观金融因素对供应链金融信用风险传染的影响在作用程度和方向上存在差异。
