Oral Health Academic Clinical Program, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore.
National Dental Research Institute Singapore, National Dental Centre Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
J Periodontal Res. 2024 Oct;59(5):823-867. doi: 10.1111/jre.13337. Epub 2024 Aug 27.
To (i) assess the prevalence, incidence, and burden of severe periodontitis and edentulism in 2021, and (ii) forecast their rates in 2050.
Prevalence, incidence, and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) for severe periodontitis and edentulism in 2021 were gathered globally, covering 204 countries, seven super regions, and 21 regions from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Prevalence, incidence, and YLDs due to periodontitis and edentulism to 2050 were projected using mixed-effects models with the socio-demographic index as the main covariate.
In 2021, over 1 billion people were affected by severe periodontitis (1066.95 million; 95% UI: 896.55-1234.84), with a global age-standardized prevalence of 12.50% (10.53-14.49). South Asia had the highest prevalence rate, at 17.57% (14.73; 20.14). Edentulism affected 353 million people globally (300.60-416.20), resulting in an age-standardized prevalence of 4.11% (3.50; 4.83). The highest edentulism prevalence was found in Latin America and the Caribbean, at 7.39% (6.44; 8.39). By 2050, more than 1.5 billion people (+44.32%) are projected to have severe periodontitis, and over 660 million (+84.40%) to be edentulous. In the same year, 19.67% (130.23 million) of the edentulous people worldwide will be located in China. Severe periodontitis is expected to move up one position, and edentulism nine positions, among the most impactful Level 4 diseases/conditions affecting YLDs worldwide by 2050.
Severe periodontitis and edentulism remain major public health challenges in 2021, with the number of affected individuals projected to rise significantly in the coming decades.
（一）评估 2021 年严重牙周炎和无牙颌的患病率、发病率和疾病负担；（二）预测 2050 年的发病率。
从全球 204 个国家/地区、7 个超级区域和 21 个全球疾病负担（GBD）2021 研究区域中收集了 2021 年严重牙周炎和无牙颌的患病率、发病率和伤残调整生命年（YLDs）。使用混合效应模型，以社会人口指数为主要协变量，预测 2050 年牙周炎和无牙颌所致的患病率、发病率和 YLDs。
2021 年，有超过 10 亿人受到严重牙周炎的影响（10.6695 亿人；95%置信区间：8.9655-12.3484），全球年龄标准化患病率为 12.50%（10.53-14.49）。南亚的患病率最高，为 17.57%（14.73；20.14）。全球有 3.53 亿人患有无牙颌，年龄标准化患病率为 4.11%（3.50；4.83）。无牙颌患病率最高的地区是拉丁美洲和加勒比地区，为 7.39%（6.44；8.39）。到 2050 年，预计将有超过 15 亿人（+44.32%）患有严重牙周炎，超过 6.6 亿人（+84.40%）将无牙。同年，全球 19.67%（1302.3 万人）的无牙颌患者将分布在中国。预计到 2050 年，严重牙周炎将在全球影响伤残调整生命年的第四级疾病/状况中上升一位，无牙颌将上升九位。
严重牙周炎和无牙颌仍是 2021 年的主要公共卫生挑战，预计在未来几十年内，受影响的人数将显著增加。
