ICU Mortality Across Prepandemic and Pandemic Cohorts in a Resource-Limited Setting: A Critical Care Resiliency Analysis From South Africa.

BACKGROUND

Hospital adaptation and resiliency, required during public health emergencies to optimize outcomes, are understudied especially in resource-limited settings.

RESEARCH QUESTION

What are the prepandemic and pandemic critical illness outcomes in a resource-limited setting and in the context of capacity strain?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study among patients admitted to ICUs at two public hospitals in the KwaZulu-Natal Department of Health in South Africa preceding and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2017-2022). We used multivariate logistic regression to analyze the association between three patient cohorts (prepandemic non-COVID-19, pandemic non-COVID-19, and pandemic COVID-19) and ICU capacity strain and the primary outcome of ICU mortality.

RESULTS

Three thousand two hundred twenty-one patients were admitted to the ICU during the prepandemic period and 2,539 patients were admitted to the ICU during the pandemic period (n = 375 [14.8%] with COVID-19 and n = 2,164 [85.2%] without COVID-19). The prepandemic and pandemic non-COVID-19 cohorts were similar. Compared with the non-COVID-19 cohorts, the pandemic COVID-19 cohort showed older age, higher rates of chronic cardiovascular disease and diabetes, less extrapulmonary organ dysfunction, and longer ICU length of stay. Compared with the prepandemic non-COVID-19 cohort, the pandemic non-COVID-19 cohort showed similar odds of ICU mortality (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.90-1.25; = .50) whereas the pandemic COVID-19 cohort showed significantly increased odds of ICU mortality (OR, 3.91; 95% CI, 3.03-5.05 P < .0005). ICU occupancy was not associated with ICU mortality in either the COVID-19 cohort (OR, 1.05 per 10% change in ICU occupancy; 95% CI, 0.96-1.14; P = .27) or the pooled non-COVID-19 cohort (OR, 1.01 per 10% change in ICU occupancy; 95% CI, 0.98-1.03; = .52).

INTERPRETATION

Patients admitted to the ICU before and during the pandemic without COVID-19 were broadly similar in clinical characteristics and outcomes, suggesting critical care resiliency, whereas patients admitted to the ICU with COVID-19 showed important clinical differences and significantly higher mortality.