Centre for Modelling of Biological and Social Processes, Prague, Czechia.
All authors contributed equally to this work.
Euro Surveill. 2024 Aug;29(35). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2024.29.35.2300690.
BackgroundCOVID-19 remains a major infectious disease with substantial implications for individual and public health including the risk of a post-infection syndrome, long COVID. The continuous changes in dominant variants of SARS-CoV-2 necessitate a careful study of the effect of preventative strategies.AimWe aimed to estimate the effectiveness of post-vaccination, post-infection and hybrid immunity against severe cases requiring oxygen support caused by infections with SARS-CoV-2 variants BA1/2 and BA4/5+, and against long COVID in the infected population and their changes over time.MethodsWe used a Cox regression analysis with time-varying covariates and calendar time and logistic regression applied to national-level data from Czechia from December 2021 until August 2023.ResultsRecently boosted vaccination, post-infection and hybrid immunity provide significant protection against a severe course of COVID-19, while unboosted vaccination more than 10 months ago has a negligible protective effect. The post-vaccination immunity against the BA1/2 or BA4/5+ variants, especially based on the original vaccine types, appears to wane rapidly compared with post-infection and hybrid immunity. Once infected, however, previous immunity plays only a small protective role against long COVID.ConclusionVaccination remains an effective preventative measure against a severe course of COVID-19 but its effectiveness wanes over time thus highlighting the importance of booster doses. Once infected, vaccines may have a small protective effect against the development of long COVID.
背景
COVID-19 仍然是一种主要的传染病,对个人和公共健康都有重大影响,包括感染后综合征(长新冠)的风险。SARS-CoV-2 的主要变异株不断变化,因此需要仔细研究预防策略的效果。
目的
我们旨在评估接种疫苗后、感染后和混合免疫对 SARS-CoV-2 变异株 BA1/2 和 BA4/5+ 感染导致需要吸氧支持的严重病例以及对感染人群中长新冠的有效性,并评估其随时间的变化。
方法
我们使用了具有时变协变量和日历时间的 Cox 回归分析以及逻辑回归,应用于 2021 年 12 月至 2023 年 8 月期间来自捷克的国家级数据。
结果
最近加强接种、感染后和混合免疫对 COVID-19 的严重病程提供了显著保护,而 10 个月前未加强接种的疫苗则几乎没有保护作用。与感染后和混合免疫相比,针对 BA1/2 或 BA4/5+变异株的接种后免疫,特别是基于原始疫苗类型的免疫,似乎迅速减弱。然而,一旦感染,先前的免疫对长新冠的保护作用很小。
结论
接种疫苗仍然是预防 COVID-19 严重病程的有效措施,但随着时间的推移其有效性会减弱,因此强调了加强剂量的重要性。一旦感染,疫苗对长新冠的发展可能只有很小的保护作用。