Dávila-Cervantes Claudio Alberto, Pardo-Montaño Ana Melisa
Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales Mexico, Mexico DF, DF, Mexico.
Instituto de Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Ciudad de Mexico, Ciudad de México, Mexico
Inj Prev. 2024 Aug 30. doi: 10.1136/ip-2024-045293.
Mexico is among the countries with the highest mortality rates by firearms worldwide. We aimed to analyse the trend in the burden of firearm violence (FV) by age and sex in Mexico at a national and subnational level, and the association between this burden and the Sociodemographic Index.
We used estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD)-2019 study for the analysis of FV mortality, premature mortality and disability for all available age-groups and by sex. The GBD data separates FV into three categories-interpersonal violence from firearms, unintentional injuries from firearms and self-harm from firearms. We used a joinpoint regression analysis to analyse the temporal trends of the FV burden.
FV exhibited a non-significant increase. By cause, there was a significant increase in the burden of interpersonal violence from firearms, a non-significant decrease in the burden of self-harm from firearms and a significant decrease in the burden of unintentional injuries from firearms. Most of the FV burden is attributed to interpersonal violence from firearms. Almost the entirety of the burden of FV results from premature mortality. The incidence of FV disability adjusted life years (DALYs) was significantly higher among males than females, and was most concentrated in males aged 20-44 and females aged 15-49. Significant heterogeneity in FV DALY trends was observed at the subnational level.
These results may help to better understand the burden of FV and help the design and implementation of national and local preventive policies.
墨西哥是全球枪支死亡率最高的国家之一。我们旨在分析墨西哥全国和次国家层面按年龄和性别划分的枪支暴力负担趋势，以及这种负担与社会人口指数之间的关联。
我们使用了全球疾病负担（GBD）-2019研究的估计数据，来分析所有可用年龄组和性别的枪支暴力死亡率、过早死亡率和残疾情况。GBD数据将枪支暴力分为三类：人际间枪支暴力、枪支意外伤害和枪支自残。我们使用连接点回归分析来分析枪支暴力负担的时间趋势。
枪支暴力呈不显著增加。按原因来看，人际间枪支暴力负担显著增加，枪支自残负担呈不显著下降，枪支意外伤害负担显著下降。大部分枪支暴力负担归因于人际间枪支暴力。几乎所有枪支暴力负担都源于过早死亡。男性的枪支暴力伤残调整生命年（DALYs）发生率显著高于女性，且主要集中在20 - 44岁的男性和15 - 49岁的女性。在次国家层面观察到枪支暴力DALY趋势存在显著异质性。
这些结果可能有助于更好地理解枪支暴力负担，并有助于国家和地方预防政策的设计与实施。
