Subarna Rifa Tamanna, Saiyan Zwad Al
Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences (Microbiology), BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
IJID Reg. 2024 Jul 17;12:100406. doi: 10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100406. eCollection 2024 Sep.
This study aims to elucidate the epidemiological characteristics, spatial distribution, and potential contributing factors associated with the 2022-2023 dengue outbreak in Bangladesh.
We retrospectively analyzed dengue fever cases reported by national health surveillance systems, focusing on incidence, geographical spread, and fatalities. Statistical methods were used to explore correlations between population density, healthcare capacity, and disease prevalence.
Our study revealed that in 2023, dengue cases and deaths surged five-fold (from 62,382 to 320,835) and nearly six-fold (from 281 to 1699) compared with 2022. Major cities such as Dhaka and Chittagong emerged as epicenters with significantly higher caseloads and mortality rates. The analysis identified a strong positive correlation between population density and disease prevalence, suggesting urbanization as a contributing factor. In addition, a shift in the peak dengue season from August to September was observed. Furthermore, disparities in health care infrastructure were identified, with densely populated areas experiencing critical shortages of hospital beds, potentially impacting fatality rates.
This unprecedented dengue outbreak in Bangladesh highlights the need for a multifaceted approach. Prioritizing vector control, targeted public awareness in identified hotspots, addressing healthcare resource inequities, and further research on environmental and demographic determinants of transmission are crucial for mitigating future outbreaks in Bangladesh.
本研究旨在阐明与2022 - 2023年孟加拉国登革热疫情相关的流行病学特征、空间分布及潜在影响因素。
我们回顾性分析了国家卫生监测系统报告的登革热病例，重点关注发病率、地理传播情况及死亡情况。运用统计方法探究人口密度、医疗服务能力与疾病流行率之间的相关性。
我们的研究表明，与2022年相比，2023年登革热病例数和死亡数激增了五倍（从62382例增至320835例）和近六倍（从281例增至1699例）。达卡和吉大港等主要城市成为疫情中心，病例数和死亡率显著更高。分析发现人口密度与疾病流行率之间存在强正相关，表明城市化是一个影响因素。此外，观察到登革热高峰季节从8月转移到了9月。此外，还发现了医疗基础设施方面的差异，人口密集地区医院床位严重短缺，这可能影响死亡率。
孟加拉国此次前所未有的登革热疫情凸显了采取多方面措施的必要性。优先进行病媒控制、在确定的热点地区开展有针对性的公众宣传、解决医疗资源不平等问题以及进一步研究传播的环境和人口决定因素，对于减轻孟加拉国未来的疫情至关重要。
