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中国贵州省极端降雨变化特征及其对温度变化的响应

Characterization of extreme rainfall changes and response to temperature changes in Guizhou Province, China.

作者信息

Tan Hongmei, He Zhonghua, Yu Huan, Yang Shuping, Wang Maoqiang, Gu Xiaolin, Xu Mingjin

机构信息

School of Geography and Environmental Science, Guizhou Normal University, GuiyangGuizhou, 550001, China.

Guizhou Mountain Resources and Environmental Remote Sensing Application Laboratory, GuiyangGuizhou, 550001, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Sep 3;14(1):20495. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-71662-2.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-024-71662-2
PMID:39227648
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11371822/
Abstract

Different geographical zones have regional heterogeneity in underlying earth surface structure and microclimate which result in different evolution trends and their response to climate change varies in extreme rainfalls in these zones. In the Guizhou province of China, there are complex landforms, which lead to spatial redistribution of rainfall, frequent extreme rainfall, and disasters high risk of geologic disasters. Research on extreme climate in Guizhou mostly paid attention to its spatio-temporal characteristics and modeling, but lack of analysis on its characteristics of extreme rainfall variability and response to temperature changes under different subsurface conditions. This study investigated the characteristics of the extreme rainfall spatiotemporal and recurrence periods in Guizhou province and discussed the relationship between the response of extreme rainfall to temperature change. Daily rainfall data from 1990 to 2020 and 2021-2100 at 31 meteorological observation stations throughout the province were collected to calculate extreme precipitation. This research had the following results. (1) Both historical and future periods show an upward trend in extreme rainfall in Guizhou province, with a spatial distribution pattern of "high in the south and low in the north, high in the east and low in the west" and "high in the southeast and low in the northwest", respectively; the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall under each recurrence period is consistent with the non-recurrence period. (2) Both historical and future periods show an upward trend in temperature in Guizhou province, with a spatial distribution consistent with that of the extreme rainfall in the corresponding period. (3) The change in extreme rainfall intensity with increasing temperature is almost always greater than the C-C rate for different periods and underlying earth surface structure; Extreme rainfall has a Hook response structure to temperature change, and the climate response structure shifts to the right with climate warming. The results of the study can provide a basis for decision-making on regional disaster prevention and mitigation in the context of temperature change.

摘要

不同地理区域的地表结构和微气候存在区域异质性，这导致了不同的演变趋势，并且这些区域在极端降雨情况下对气候变化的响应也各不相同。在中国贵州省，地形复杂，导致降雨的空间再分配、极端降雨频繁，地质灾害风险高。贵州极端气候研究大多关注其时空特征及建模，缺乏对不同地下条件下极端降雨变异性特征及其对温度变化响应的分析。本研究调查了贵州省极端降雨的时空特征和重现期，并探讨了极端降雨对温度变化响应之间的关系。收集了全省31个气象观测站1990 - 2020年以及2021 - 2100年的日降雨数据来计算极端降水量。本研究有以下结果。（1）历史时期和未来时期贵州省极端降雨均呈上升趋势，空间分布格局分别为“南高北低、东高西低”和“东南高西北低”；各重现期下极端降雨的空间分布与非重现期一致。（2）历史时期和未来时期贵州省气温均呈上升趋势，空间分布与相应时期极端降雨的分布一致。（3）不同时期和地表结构下，极端降雨强度随温度升高的变化几乎总是大于C - C率；极端降雨对温度变化具有钩状响应结构，且气候响应结构随气候变暖向右移动。研究结果可为温度变化背景下区域防灾减灾决策提供依据。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4bfd/11371822/b64e4b8aefa2/41598_2024_71662_Fig12_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4bfd/11371822/61bb20873af4/41598_2024_71662_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4bfd/11371822/07c79b99e691/41598_2024_71662_Fig2_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4bfd/11371822/dce922a247e8/41598_2024_71662_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4bfd/11371822/cc4555d7c52d/41598_2024_71662_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4bfd/11371822/e6da6801281f/41598_2024_71662_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4bfd/11371822/0fb400783d1a/41598_2024_71662_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4bfd/11371822/a27f896aaa54/41598_2024_71662_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4bfd/11371822/a548dc640f75/41598_2024_71662_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4bfd/11371822/1626f0ed3f30/41598_2024_71662_Fig11_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4bfd/11371822/b64e4b8aefa2/41598_2024_71662_Fig12_HTML.jpg

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中国小时、日和基于事件的极端降水的温度依赖性
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