Chen Shihao, Men Baohui, Pang Jinfeng, Bian Zongzhen, Wang Hongrui
School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China.
College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 May 30;15(1):19061. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-99650-0.
Considering plateau climate and complex terrain of the upper Yellow River Basin, understanding changes in climate extremes has become increasingly urgent. This study has highlighted the historical changes in climate extremes from 1960 to 2022 based on 20 extreme climate indices, and future changes in climate extremes until 2100 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126 and SSP585) based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models. We found that historical spatial and temporal evolutions of precipitation extremes (PEs) and temperature extremes (TEs) primarily exhibit increasing trends. The frequency and intensity of PEs primarily show an increasing trend, while the duration of PEs primarily shows a decreasing trend. Both the frequency and duration of cold extremes primarily show a decreasing trend, while the intensity of cold extremes, as well as the intensity, frequency, and duration of warm extremes, primarily show an increasing trend. Future PEs and TEs are expected to continue to intensify even under the most ideal scenario (i.e., SSP126), and these are anticipated to further intensify with increasing radiative forcing levels and greenhouse gas concentrations. Results could provide scientific references for better coping with extreme climate changes in regions of complex terrain and scarce observation station.
考虑到黄河上游流域的高原气候和复杂地形，了解极端气候的变化变得越来越紧迫。本研究基于20个极端气候指数突出了1960年至2022年极端气候的历史变化，并基于耦合模式比较计划第6阶段（CMIP6）模型，给出了在两种共享社会经济路径（SSP126和SSP585）下直到2100年极端气候的未来变化。我们发现，极端降水（PEs）和极端温度（TEs）的历史时空演变主要呈现增加趋势。极端降水的频率和强度主要呈增加趋势，而极端降水的持续时间主要呈减少趋势。极端寒冷事件的频率和持续时间主要呈减少趋势，而极端寒冷事件的强度以及极端温暖事件的强度、频率和持续时间主要呈增加趋势。即使在最理想的情景（即SSP126）下，未来的极端降水和极端温度预计仍将继续加剧，并且随着辐射强迫水平和温室气体浓度的增加，预计这些情况还会进一步加剧。研究结果可为更好应对地形复杂且观测站点稀少地区的极端气候变化提供科学参考。
