Shev Aaron B, Wright Mona A, Kagawa Rose M C, Wintemute Garen J
Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.
Inj Epidemiol. 2023 Nov 9;10(1):57. doi: 10.1186/s40621-023-00462-5.
Prohibiting the purchase and possession of firearms by those at risk of violence is an established approach to preventing firearm violence. Prior studies of legal purchasers have focused on convictions for specific crimes, such as violent misdemeanors and driving under the influence (DUI). We broaden that line of inquiry by investigating and comparing the associations between prior arrests for most categories of crime and subsequent arrest for violent offenses among legal handgun purchasers in California.
In this longitudinal cohort study of 79,678 legal handgun purchasers in California in 2001, we group arrest charges prior to their first purchases in 2001 according to categories defined by the Uniform Crime Report (UCR) Handbook. We use a gradient boosting machine to identify categories of offenses that are most important for predicting arrest for violent crime following firearm purchase. For each category identified, we then estimate the difference in risk of subsequent arrest for a violent offense using survival regression models.
We identified eight crime categories with high predictive importance: simple assaults, aggravated assaults, vehicle violations, weapon, other crimes, theft, drug abuse, and DUI. Compared to purchasers with no prior arrests, those with a prior arrest for any one of the eight important categories and no other categories were found to be at increased risk of arrest for a Crime Index-listed violent crime (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault), with the greatest estimated risk corresponding to the simple assault UCR category (adjusted hazard ratio 4.0; 95% CI 2.8-5.9). Simple assault was also associated with the greatest risk for subsequent arrest for firearm violence (adjusted hazard ratio 4.6; 95% CI 2.4-9.0) and any violent offense (adjusted hazard ratio 3.7; 95% CI 2.7-5.0).
The findings of this study suggest that prior arrests for a broad array of crimes, both violent and non-violent, are associated with risk of subsequent violent crimes, including Crime Index-listed violent crimes and firearm violence, among legal purchasers of firearms. Current policies aimed at restricting access to firearms for individuals at increased risk of violence should be re-examined considering these findings.
禁止有暴力风险的人购买和持有枪支是预防枪支暴力的既定方法。先前对合法购买者的研究主要集中在特定罪行的定罪上，如暴力轻罪和酒后驾车（DUI）。我们通过调查和比较加利福尼亚州合法手枪购买者中大多数犯罪类别的先前逮捕与随后暴力犯罪逮捕之间的关联，拓宽了这一研究方向。
在这项对2001年加利福尼亚州79678名合法手枪购买者的纵向队列研究中，我们根据《统一犯罪报告》（UCR）手册定义的类别，对他们在2001年首次购买之前的逮捕指控进行分组。我们使用梯度提升机来识别对预测枪支购买后暴力犯罪逮捕最重要的犯罪类别。对于每个识别出的类别，我们然后使用生存回归模型估计随后暴力犯罪逮捕风险的差异。
我们确定了八个具有高度预测重要性的犯罪类别：简单攻击、严重攻击、车辆违规、武器、其他犯罪、盗窃、药物滥用和酒后驾车。与没有先前逮捕记录的购买者相比，在这八个重要类别中的任何一个类别有过先前逮捕记录且没有其他类别的购买者，被发现因犯罪指数列出的暴力犯罪（谋杀、强奸、抢劫、严重攻击）而被捕的风险增加，估计风险最大的对应于简单攻击UCR类别（调整后的风险比4.0；95%置信区间2.8 - 5.9）。简单攻击也与随后因枪支暴力被捕的最大风险相关（调整后的风险比4.6；95%置信区间2.4 - 9.0）以及任何暴力犯罪（调整后的风险比3.7；95%置信区间2.7 - 5.0）。
这项研究的结果表明，先前因广泛的暴力和非暴力犯罪而被捕与枪支合法购买者随后发生暴力犯罪的风险相关，包括犯罪指数列出的暴力犯罪和枪支暴力。考虑到这些发现，应重新审视当前旨在限制暴力风险增加的个人获得枪支的政策。
