Decline in the West Greenland population of a zooplanktivorous seabird, the little auk Alle alle.

The warming of the Arctic had lead to a diverse range of impacts on local biota, including northward shifts of some species range. Here, we report past and present distribution and abundance of an Arctic zooplanktivorous seabird, the little auk Alle alle in West Greenland south of 74° N, and examine the changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) in the birds foraging areas in 1850-2007. We estimated the little auk population in the studied region to be 5,200 pairs in the 1930s, 6,000-6,500 pairs in the 1940-1970s and 70-80 pairs by the 2000s. We found that periods with increased SST and reduced SIC, especially in the last few decades, coincided with little auk population declines. Besides, years with little auk presence in breeding sites were characterized by either low SST and low to moderate SIC or higher SST but moderate to high SIC. Observed contraction of the breeding range and a decrease in abundance of the little auk may be attributed to more complex climate-driven changes in the marine ecosystem at finer spatial and temporal scales and/or cannot be easily detected given the coarseness of data used. It is possible that the population in this region has never been very numerous being subjected to local impacts such as disease, bycatch, predation, etc. The climate warming that is currently being observed, along with corresponding shifts in zooplankton communities, may lead to extirpation of the studied little auk populations.