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基于粒子群优化的深度学习电力负荷预测模型性能分析

Performance analysis of deep learning-based electric load forecasting model with particle swarm optimization.

作者信息

Dai LuPing

机构信息

Shanghai Electric Power Company, 200122, Shanghai, China.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2024 Jul 30;10(16):e35273. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e35273. eCollection 2024 Aug 30.

Abstract

With the widespread application of deep learning technology in various fields, power load forecasting, as an important link in power system operation and planning, has also ushered in new opportunities and challenges. Traditional forecasting methods perform poorly when faced with the high uncertainty and complexity of power loads. In view of this, this paper proposes a power load forecasting model PSO-BiTC based on deep learning and particle swarm optimization. This model combines a temporal convolutional network (TCN) and a bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM), using TCN to process long sequence data and capture features and patterns in time series, while using BiLSTM to capture long-term and short-term dependencies. In addition, the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) is used to optimize model parameters to improve the model's predictive performance and generalization ability. Experimental results show that the PSO-BiTC model performs well in power load forecasting. Compared with traditional methods, this model reduces the MAE (Mean Absolute Error) to 20.18, 17.57, 18.61 and 16.7 on four extensive data sets, respectively. It has been proven that it achieves the best performance in various indicators, with a low number of parameters and training time. This research is of great significance for improving the operating efficiency of the power system, optimizing resource allocation, and promoting carbon emission reduction goals in the urban building sector.

摘要

随着深度学习技术在各个领域的广泛应用,电力负荷预测作为电力系统运行与规划中的重要环节,也迎来了新的机遇与挑战。传统预测方法在面对电力负荷的高度不确定性和复杂性时表现不佳。鉴于此,本文提出了一种基于深度学习和粒子群优化的电力负荷预测模型PSO - BiTC。该模型将时间卷积网络(TCN)和双向长短期记忆网络(BiLSTM)相结合,利用TCN处理长序列数据并捕捉时间序列中的特征和模式,同时利用BiLSTM捕捉长期和短期依赖性。此外,采用粒子群优化算法(PSO)对模型参数进行优化,以提高模型的预测性能和泛化能力。实验结果表明,PSO - BiTC模型在电力负荷预测中表现良好。与传统方法相比,该模型在四个广泛的数据集上分别将平均绝对误差(MAE)降低到20.18、17.57、18.61和16.7。事实证明,它在各项指标上均实现了最佳性能,参数数量少且训练时间短。本研究对于提高电力系统运行效率、优化资源配置以及推动城市建筑部门的碳排放减排目标具有重要意义。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6cf8/11379997/e0b438389c29/gr001.jpg

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