Wu Huihuang, Yang Haozhe, Hu Xiurong, Zhou Yuhan, Wang Xian, Liu Junfeng, Liu Ying, Tao Shu
Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.
Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA.
Environ Sci Ecotechnol. 2024 Aug 5;22:100474. doi: 10.1016/j.ese.2024.100474. eCollection 2024 Nov.
Improving electrification feasibility is essential for reducing emissions from non-electric energy sources, thereby enhancing air quality and public health. Concurrently, climate mitigation actions, such as carbon pricing policies, have significant potential to alleviate increasing carbon dioxide (CO) and other co-emitted air pollutants. However, the interactions between climate policy and the improvement of electrification feasibility at the provincial level remain unclear, collectively impacting the net-zero transition of energy-intensive sectors. Here we combine a technologically rich economic-energy-environment model with air quality modeling across China to examine the health, climate, and economic implications of large-scale upgrades in electrification feasibility and climate policies from 2017 to 2030. The results indicate that advancing electrification feasibility, coupled with adopting carbon pricing policies, is likely to facilitate a transition towards electricity-dominant energy systems. Improved electrification feasibility is projected to yield a 7-25% increase in nationwide climate benefits and a 5-14% increase in health benefits by 2030. These incremental benefits, coupled with reduced economic costs, result in a 22-68% increase in net benefits. However, regionally, improvements in electrification feasibility will lead to heightened power demand and unintended emissions from electric energy production in certain provinces (e.g., Nei Mongol) due to the coal-dominated power system. Additionally, in major coal-producing provinces like Shanxi and Shaanxi, enhanced electrification feasibility exacerbates the negative economic impacts of climate policies. This study provides quantitative insights into how improving electrification feasibility reshapes energy evolution and the benefit-cost profile of climate policy at the provincial level. The findings underscore the necessity of a well-designed compensation scheme between affected and unaffected provinces and coordinated emission mitigation across the power and other end-use sectors.
提高电气化可行性对于减少非电能来源的排放至关重要，从而改善空气质量和公众健康。与此同时，诸如碳定价政策等气候缓解行动具有显著潜力，可减轻不断增加的二氧化碳（CO）及其他共同排放的空气污染物。然而，省级层面气候政策与电气化可行性改善之间的相互作用仍不明确，共同影响着能源密集型行业的净零转型。在此，我们将一个技术丰富的经济 - 能源 - 环境模型与中国各地的空气质量模型相结合，以研究2017年至2030年大规模提升电气化可行性和气候政策对健康、气候和经济的影响。结果表明，推进电气化可行性并采用碳定价政策，可能有助于向以电力为主导的能源系统转型。预计到2030年，电气化可行性的提高将使全国气候效益提高7 - 25%，健康效益提高5 - 14%。这些增量效益加上经济成本的降低，使净效益提高22 - 68%。然而，在区域层面，由于以煤炭为主的电力系统，电气化可行性的提高将导致某些省份（如内蒙古）电力需求增加以及电能生产产生意外排放。此外，在山西和陕西等主要产煤省份，增强的电气化可行性加剧了气候政策的负面经济影响。本研究提供了关于提高电气化可行性如何重塑省级层面能源演变以及气候政策效益成本概况的定量见解。研究结果强调了在受影响省份和未受影响省份之间设计完善的补偿方案以及跨电力和其他终端使用部门协调减排的必要性。
