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当前和未来气候情景下印度伊蚊潜在分布的空间异质性。

Spatial heterogeneity in the potential distribution of Aedes mosquitoes in India under current and future climatic scenarios.

作者信息

Varamballi Prasad, Babu N Naren, Mudgal Piya Paul, Shetty Ujwal, Jayaram Anup, Karunakaran Kavitha, Arumugam Sathishkumar, Mukhopadhyay Chiranjay

机构信息

Manipal Institute of Virology (MIV), Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), Madhav Nagar, Manipal, Udupi, Karnataka 576104, India.

Manipal Institute of Virology (MIV), Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), Madhav Nagar, Manipal, Udupi, Karnataka 576104, India.

出版信息

Acta Trop. 2024 Dec;260:107403. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107403. Epub 2024 Sep 13.

Abstract

Aedes is the most globally distributed mosquito genus in the 21st century and transmits various arboviral diseases. The rapid expansion of Ae. Aegypti and Ae. albopictus breeding habitats is a significant threat to global public health, driven by temperature and precipitation changes. In this study, bioclimatic variables were employed to predict the spatial distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in India. The reference coordinate points of (n = 583) Aedes occurrences at a scale of ∼1 km and nineteen bioclimatic factors were retrieved to train SDM (Species Distribution Models) for both species. Maximum entropy modelling was used to predict the species' fundamental climatic niche distributions. Future projections were made using global climate models for 2021-2040 and 2081-2100 separately. The models performed reasonably well (AUC > 0.77). Both species thrived in reduced diurnal temperature and higher annual mean temperatures, with suitability increasing alongside precipitation. Ae. aegypti's projected present and future distribution was broader than that of Ae. Albopictus. The expansion of Aedes suitability varied under different future climatic scenarios. Suitability for Ae. aegypti could expand from between 17.6 and 41.1 % in 2100 under SSP (shared socioeconomic pathways) scenarios 1 and 3, respectively, whereas for Ae. albopictus suitability increased from between 10.2 and 25 % under SSP scenarios 1 and 3 respectively. Preparing for future epidemics and outbreaks requires robust vector distribution models to identify high-risk areas, allocate resources for surveillance and control, and implement prevention strategies.

摘要

伊蚊是21世纪全球分布最广的蚊子属,可传播多种虫媒病毒疾病。埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊繁殖栖息地的迅速扩张,在温度和降水变化的推动下,对全球公共卫生构成了重大威胁。在本研究中,利用生物气候变量预测印度埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊的空间分布。获取了约1公里尺度下583个伊蚊出现地点的参考坐标点以及19个生物气候因子,用于训练这两个物种的物种分布模型(SDM)。采用最大熵建模来预测物种的基本气候生态位分布。分别使用全球气候模型对2021 - 2040年和2081 - 2100年进行未来预测。模型表现良好(AUC > 0.77)。两个物种在昼夜温差减小和年平均温度较高的环境中繁衍,适宜性随降水量增加而提高。埃及伊蚊目前和未来的预测分布范围比白纹伊蚊更广。不同未来气候情景下,伊蚊适宜性的扩张情况有所不同。在共享社会经济路径(SSP)情景1和情景3下,到2100年,埃及伊蚊的适宜性分别可从17.6%扩大到41.1%,而白纹伊蚊的适宜性分别从10.2%增加到25%。为未来的流行病和疫情爆发做准备,需要强大的病媒分布模型来识别高风险地区、分配监测和控制资源以及实施预防策略。

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