Glick Jennifer E, Alcaraz Melissa, Randrianasolo Arinala, Yabiku Scott T
The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA.
Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah, USA.
J Adolesc. 2025 Jan;97(1):148-164. doi: 10.1002/jad.12406. Epub 2024 Sep 15.
As a shared external shock, the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) impacted health and well-being around the world. Mitigation strategies employed in many locations included school closures and travel restrictions. These strategies directly impacted educational access and opportunities and created economic stressors for families. This study examines how these direct impacts also altered educational aspirations for children and adolescents, an important predictor of educational attainment.
We estimate multilevel regression models using two waves of data, collected in 2017-18 and 2020-21, from 1294 children and adolescents (Mean age = 13.1, SD = 2.8; 50.3% female) in Jalisco, Mexico, and 2201 children and adolescents (Mean age = 14.7, SD = 2.6; 49.1% female) in Chitwan Nepal. We examine changes in educational aspirations between the two waves (pre- and post-COVID-19 onset).
Initial aspirations are positively associated with household wealth, caregiver education, and prior commitment to education. Multilevel regression models predicting changes in educational aspirations demonstrate these resources are important for maintaining high educational aspirations. But children and adolescents in households that experienced more economic loss following the external shock of the pandemic had lowered aspirations over time.
Disruptions to schooling and economic shocks to households curtailed educational aspirations among children and adolescents in a similar way in two disparate settings. These results raise concerns about the educational attainment of children in the face of external shocks and the possibility that educational progress will stall in low resourced environments among the most vulnerable youth.
作为一种共同的外部冲击，冠状病毒大流行（COVID-19）影响了世界各地的健康和福祉。许多地方采取的缓解策略包括学校关闭和旅行限制。这些策略直接影响了教育机会和受教育程度，并给家庭带来了经济压力。本研究考察了这些直接影响如何改变了儿童和青少年的教育期望，而教育期望是教育成就的一个重要预测指标。
我们使用两波数据估计多层回归模型，这些数据于2017 - 18年和2020 - 21年收集，来自墨西哥哈利斯科州的1294名儿童和青少年（平均年龄 = 13.1，标准差 = 2.8；50.3%为女性）以及尼泊尔奇旺的2201名儿童和青少年（平均年龄 = 14.7，标准差 = 2.6；49.1%为女性）。我们考察了两波数据（COVID-19疫情爆发前和后）之间教育期望的变化。
初始期望与家庭财富、照料者教育程度以及先前对教育的投入呈正相关。预测教育期望变化的多层回归模型表明，这些资源对于维持高教育期望很重要。但在疫情外部冲击后经历更多经济损失的家庭中的儿童和青少年，随着时间的推移其期望有所降低。
学校教育中断和家庭经济冲击以类似方式降低了两个不同地区儿童和青少年的教育期望。这些结果引发了人们对面对外部冲击时儿童教育成就的担忧，以及在资源匮乏环境中最脆弱青年的教育进展可能停滞的可能性。
