Zou Xiping, Sun Lilu, Lan Tian, Fan Chengpeng, Liu Shan, Zhao Hui, Qiu Jinlong
School of Economy and Finance, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing, 400054, China.
School of Management, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing, 400054, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Aug 23;10(17):e36788. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e36788. eCollection 2024 Sep 15.
Road traffic injuries stands as a major concern globally, as they result in significant loss of life, economic impact, and erode trust in government and societal safety. The influence of weather on road traffic safety is undeniable, impacting road conditions, individuals, and vehicles. However, the specific influence of weather on road traffic casualties has seldom been explored.
This study assesses the effect of weather factors on road traffic casualties in China from 2006 to 2021. Vector error correction models (VECM) were utilized to determine the Granger causality between weather factors and covariates. Furthermore, panel autoregressive distribution lag models (ARDL) were applied to quantify the association between weather factors and road traffic casualties.
The findings indicate that rainfall and temperature exert a short-term negative impact on casualty risk, which intriguingly becomes positive in the long term. A standout discovery is the significant role of health investments, which are shown to reduce casualty numbers in both the short and long-terms. In the long run, the gross domestic product significantly enhances casualties, while expressway mileage notably decreases them.
These results demonstrate the significant influence of weather on road traffic casualties and highlight the critical roles played by factors such as gross domestic product, health investment, and expressway mileage. The evidence presented in the study underscores the urgent need for more effective strategies to mitigate road traffic casualties. Thus, some effective measures are proposed to reduce road traffic casualties. This study is conducive to the improvement of traffic in severe weather in China and provides guidance for traffic management departments.
道路交通事故是全球主要关注的问题，因为它们导致了重大的生命损失、经济影响，并削弱了对政府和社会安全的信任。天气对道路交通安全的影响不可否认，它会影响道路状况、个人和车辆。然而，天气对道路交通伤亡的具体影响很少被探讨。
本研究评估了2006年至2021年天气因素对中国道路交通伤亡的影响。使用向量误差修正模型（VECM）来确定天气因素与协变量之间的格兰杰因果关系。此外，应用面板自回归分布滞后模型（ARDL）来量化天气因素与道路交通伤亡之间的关联。
研究结果表明，降雨和温度对伤亡风险有短期负面影响，但有趣的是，从长期来看这种影响变为正面。一个突出的发现是健康投资的重要作用，它在短期和长期都能减少伤亡人数。从长远来看，国内生产总值显著增加伤亡人数，而高速公路里程则显著减少伤亡人数。
这些结果证明了天气对道路交通伤亡有重大影响，并突出了国内生产总值、健康投资和高速公路里程等因素所起的关键作用。该研究提供的证据强调了迫切需要更有效的策略来减轻道路交通伤亡。因此，提出了一些有效措施来减少道路交通伤亡。本研究有助于改善中国恶劣天气下的交通状况，并为交通管理部门提供指导。
