Transport Division, DTU Management, Technical University of Denmark, Bygningstorvet, Building 116B, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark.
Accid Anal Prev. 2023 Nov;192:107226. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2023.107226. Epub 2023 Aug 18.
A better understanding of factors associated with bicycle crashes can inform future efforts to limit crash risks. Many previous studies have analysed crash risk based on crash databases. However, these can only provide conditional information on crash risks. A few recent studies have included aggregate flow measures in their crash risk analyses. This study incorporates detailed bicycle flow to investigate factors related to bicycle crashes. Specifically, the study assesses the relative crash risk given various conditions by applying Palm distributions to control for exposure. The study specifically investigates the relationship between weather and time conditions and the relative risk of bicycle crashes at a disaggregate level. The study uses bicycle crash data from police reports of bicycle crashes from 2017-2020 in the greater Copenhagen area (N = 4877). The relations between the bicycle crash risk and the air temperature and wind speeds are found to be highly non-linear. The relative risk of bicycle crashes is elevated at low and high temperatures (0 °C ¿ x, x ¿ 21 °C). The results also show how decreasing visibility relates to increasing bicycle crash risk. Meanwhile, cycling during the early morning peak (7-8) and afternoon peak hours (15-18) is related to an increased risk of bicycle crashes. While some of the effects are likely spurious, they highlight specific conditions associated with higher relative risk. Finally, the results illustrate the increased risk at weekend night times when cyclists are likely to bike under the influence of alcohol. In conclusion, the analysis confirms that visibility, slippery surfaces, and intoxication are all factors associated with a higher risk of bicycle crashes. Hence, it is relevant to consider how infrastructure planning and preventive measures can modify the bicycle environment to minimise these risks.
更好地了解与自行车碰撞相关的因素，可以为未来限制碰撞风险的努力提供信息。许多先前的研究都是基于碰撞数据库来分析碰撞风险。然而，这些数据库只能提供有关碰撞风险的条件信息。最近的一些研究已经将综合流量措施纳入了他们的碰撞风险分析中。本研究将详细的自行车流量纳入其中，以研究与自行车碰撞相关的因素。具体来说，该研究通过应用 Palm 分布来控制暴露情况，评估了在各种条件下特定因素的相对碰撞风险。该研究具体研究了天气和时间条件与自行车碰撞相对风险之间的关系，并在非聚合水平上研究了自行车碰撞的关系。该研究使用了来自 2017-2020 年哥本哈根大区警方报告的自行车碰撞事故数据（N=4877）。研究发现，自行车碰撞风险与空气温度和风速之间的关系高度非线性。自行车碰撞的相对风险在低温和高温时（0°C<x<21°C）升高。结果还表明，能见度降低如何与自行车碰撞风险增加有关。同时，在清晨高峰（7-8 点）和下午高峰（15-18 点）期间骑车与自行车碰撞风险增加有关。虽然其中一些影响可能是偶然的，但它们突出了与更高相对风险相关的特定条件。最后，结果说明了周末夜间自行车骑行者可能在酒精影响下骑行时风险增加的情况。总之，分析结果证实了能见度、湿滑表面和醉酒等因素都与自行车碰撞的高风险有关。因此，考虑如何规划基础设施和采取预防措施来改变自行车环境以最小化这些风险是很重要的。
