食品税对地球健康的前景：建模研究的系统评价

Prospects of Food Taxes for Planetary Health: A Systematic Review of Modeling Studies.

作者信息

Mészáros Ágota, Dósa Norbert, Péterfi Anna, Horváth Krisztián, Szarvas Zsófia, Balogh Jeremiás M, Munkácsy Balázs, Vokó Zoltán

机构信息

Department of Public Health, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary.

Center for Health Technology Assessment, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary.

出版信息

Nutr Rev. 2025 Mar 1;83(3):503-524. doi: 10.1093/nutrit/nuae111.

DOI:10.1093/nutrit/nuae111

PMID:39283704

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11879128/

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to analyze the modeling methodologies of fiscal policies on food with health or environmental outcomes.

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests that fiscal policies on food can contribute to addressing the growing burden of noncommunicable diseases and climate change. These policies should be modeled in advance to see the implications for the environment and health.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted of studies that modeled fiscal policies on the food groups targeted by the EAT-Lancet Commission and examined their health or environmental outcomes. The Scopus and PubMed databases were searched on November 30, 2021. The records were double-screened and data on modeling methods were extracted from the included studies.

RESULTS

A total of 55 studies were included in the review. The most frequently modeled interventions were fruit and vegetable subsidies (n = 19) and carbon taxes on food (n = 17). One study also included a consumer education campaign to enhance the effect of fiscal policy. The outcomes are highly sensitive to consumption change and price elasticities. None of the studies modeled the health effects of environmental outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

A model that covered all the relevant aspects of the issue was not found. Some parts were missing from all the included models. It is advisable to model the stability of the amount of diet consumed, either by keeping the amount of food in the diet stable or by taking a more conservative approach and keeping the consumed calories stable. It is preferable to keep the included diseases and environmental boundaries broad to have more valid outcome estimates on this complex issue. A more comprehensive understanding of fiscal policies would allow us to better anticipate the impact of our actions and inactions and thus could lead to more sophisticated measures taken by policymakers.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration no. 2022 CRD42022291945/.

摘要

目的

本研究旨在分析针对具有健康或环境影响的食品的财政政策建模方法。

背景

有证据表明，针对食品的财政政策有助于应对日益增长的非传染性疾病负担和气候变化。这些政策应提前建模，以了解其对环境和健康的影响。

方法

对模拟《柳叶刀-饮食委员会》所针对的食品组财政政策并研究其健康或环境影响的研究进行系统综述。于2021年11月30日检索了Scopus和PubMed数据库。对记录进行了双盲筛选，并从纳入研究中提取了建模方法的数据。

结果

本综述共纳入55项研究。最常建模的干预措施是水果和蔬菜补贴（n = 19）以及食品碳税（n = 17）。一项研究还纳入了消费者教育活动，以增强财政政策的效果。结果对消费变化和价格弹性高度敏感。没有一项研究对环境影响的健康效应进行建模。

结论

未找到涵盖该问题所有相关方面的模型。所有纳入模型均缺失某些部分。建议通过保持饮食中食物量稳定或采取更保守的方法保持摄入卡路里稳定来对饮食摄入量的稳定性进行建模。最好保持纳入的疾病和环境边界宽泛，以便对这个复杂问题有更有效的结果估计。对财政政策有更全面的理解将使我们能够更好地预测我们行动和不行动的影响，从而可能促使政策制定者采取更完善的措施。