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基于机器学习的胆石症所致急性胆管炎患者预后在线预测模型:在两个回顾性队列中的开发与验证

Machine-learning-derived online prediction models of outcomes for patients with cholelithiasis-induced acute cholangitis: development and validation in two retrospective cohorts.

作者信息

Huang Shuaijing, Zhou Yang, Liang Yan, Ye Songyi, Zhu Aijing, Li Jiawei, Bai Xiaoyu, Yue Chunxiao, Feng Yadong

机构信息

Department of Gastroenterology, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210009, Jiangsu Province, China.

Department of Pediatric Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, Medical School of Nantong University, Nantong, 226001, China.

出版信息

EClinicalMedicine. 2024 Sep 5;76:102820. doi: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102820. eCollection 2024 Oct.


DOI:10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102820
PMID:39290635
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11405916/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Cholelithiasis-induced acute cholangitis (CIAC) is an acute inflammatory disease with poor prognosis. This study aimed to create machine-learning (ML) models to predict the outcomes of patients with CIAC. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort and ML study, patients who met the both diagnosis of 'cholangitis' and 'calculus of gallbladder or bile duct' according to the International Classification of Disease (ICD) 9th revision, or met the diagnosis of 'calculus of bile duct with acute cholangitis with or without obstruction' according to the ICD 10th revision during a single hospitalization were included from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database, which records patient admissions to Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, MA, USA, spanning June 1, 2001 to November 16, 2022. Patients who were neither admitted in an emergency department nor underwent biliary drainage within 24 h after admission, had an age of less than 18, or lost over 20% of the information were excluded. Nine ML methods, including the Logistic Regression, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Adaptive Boosting, Decision Tree, Gradient Boosting Decision Tree, Gaussian Naive Bayes, Multi-Layer Perceptron, and Support Vector Machine were applied for prediction of in-hospital mortality, re-admission within 30 days after discharge, and mortality within 180 days after discharge. Patients from Zhongda Hospital affiliated to Southeast University in China between January 1, 2019 and July 30, 2023 were enrolled as an external validation set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was the main index for model performance assessment. FINDINGS: A total of 1156 patients were included to construct models. We performed stratified analyses on all patients, patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and those who underwent biliary drainage during ICU treatment. 13-16 features were selected from 186 variables for model training. The XGBoost method demonstrated the most optimal predictive efficacy, as evidenced by training set AUROC of 0.996 (95% CI NaN-NaN) for in-hospital mortality, 0.886 (0.862-0.910) for re-admission within 30 days after discharge, and 0.988 (0.982-0.995) for mortality within 180 days after discharge in all patients, 0.998 (NaN-NaN), 0.933 (0.909-0.957), and 0.988 (0.983-0.993) in patients admitted to the ICU, 0.987 (0.970-0.999), 0.908 (0.873-0.942), and 0.982 (0.971-0.993) in patients underwent biliary drainage during ICU treatment, respectively. Meanwhile, in the internal validation set, the AUROC reached 0.967 (0.933-0.998) for in-hospital mortality, 0.589 (0.502-0.677) for re-admission within 30 days after discharge, and 0.857 (0.782-0.933) for mortality within 180 days after discharge in all patients, 0.963 (NaN-NaN), 0.668 (0.486-0.851), and 0.864 (0.757-0.970) in patients admitted to the ICU, 0.961 (0.922-0.997), 0.669 (0.540-0.799), and 0.828 (0.730-0.925) in patients underwent biliary drainage during ICU treatment, respectively. The AUROC values of external validation set consisting of 61 patients were 0.741 (0.725-0.763), 0.812 (0.798-0.824), and 0.848 (0.841-0.859), respectively. INTERPRETATION: The XGBoost models could be promising tools to predict outcomes in patients with CIAC, and had good clinical applicability. Multi-center validation with a larger sample size is warranted. FUNDING: The Technological Development Program of Nanjing Healthy Commission, and Zhongda Hospital Affiliated to Southeast University, Jiangsu Province High-Level Hospital Construction Funds.

摘要

背景:胆石症诱发的急性胆管炎(CIAC)是一种预后较差的急性炎症性疾病。本研究旨在创建机器学习(ML)模型以预测CIAC患者的预后。 方法:在这项回顾性队列和ML研究中,从重症监护医学信息数据库纳入了根据国际疾病分类(ICD)第9版同时符合“胆管炎”和“胆囊或胆管结石”诊断标准,或根据ICD第10版在单次住院期间符合“伴或不伴梗阻的胆管结石合并急性胆管炎”诊断标准的患者,该数据库记录了美国马萨诸塞州贝斯以色列女执事医疗中心2001年6月1日至2022年11月16日期间的患者入院情况。排除未在急诊科入院、入院后24小时内未进行胆道引流、年龄小于18岁或信息缺失超过20%的患者。应用九种ML方法,包括逻辑回归、极端梯度提升(XGBoost)、轻量级梯度提升机、自适应提升、决策树、梯度提升决策树、高斯朴素贝叶斯、多层感知器和支持向量机,预测住院死亡率、出院后30天内再入院率以及出院后180天内死亡率。将2019年1月1日至2023年7月30日期间中国东南大学附属中大医院的患者作为外部验证集。受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUROC)是模型性能评估的主要指标。 结果:共纳入1156例患者构建模型。我们对所有患者、入住重症监护病房(ICU)的患者以及在ICU治疗期间接受胆道引流的患者进行了分层分析。从186个变量中选择13 - 16个特征进行模型训练。XGBoost方法显示出最优化的预测效果,所有患者住院死亡率的训练集AUROC为0.996(95%CI 无效值 - 无效值),出院后30天内再入院率为0.886(0.862 - 0.910),出院后180天内死亡率为0.988(0.982 - 0.995);入住ICU的患者分别为0.998(无效值 - 无效值)、0.933(0.909 - 0.957)和0.988(0.983 - 0.993);在ICU治疗期间接受胆道引流的患者分别为0.987(0.970 - 0.999)、0.908(0.873 - 0.942)和0.982(0.971 - 0.993)。同时,在内部验证集中,所有患者住院死亡率的AUROC达到0.967(0.933 - 0.998),出院后30天内再入院率为0.589(0.502 - 0.677),出院后180天内死亡率为0.857(0.782 - 0.933);入住ICU的患者分别为0.963(无效值 - 无效值)、0.668(0.486 - 0.851)和0.864(0.757 - 0.970);在ICU治疗期间接受胆道引流的患者分别为0.961(0.922 - 0.997)、0.669(0.540 - 0.799)和0.828(0.730 - 0.925)。由61例患者组成的外部验证集的AUROC值分别为0.741(0.725 - 0.763)、0.812(0.798 - 0.824)和0.848(0.841 - 0.859)。 解读:XGBoost模型可能是预测CIAC患者预后的有前景的工具,且具有良好的临床适用性。有必要进行更大样本量的多中心验证。 资助:南京市卫生健康委员会技术发展项目,以及东南大学附属中大医院江苏省高水平医院建设资金。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/481c/11405916/d4e27f492b4a/gr5.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/481c/11405916/d4e27f492b4a/gr5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/481c/11405916/3299bf0c60d3/gr1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/481c/11405916/ffcd37ce80e7/gr2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/481c/11405916/67aa285d51d8/gr3.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/481c/11405916/d4e27f492b4a/gr5.jpg

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[1]
Urgent one-stage endoscopic treatment for choledocholithiasis related moderate to severe acute cholangitis: A propensity score-matched analysis.

World J Gastroenterol. 2024-4-21

[2]
Development and validation of prognostic machine learning models for short- and long-term mortality among acutely admitted patients based on blood tests.

Sci Rep. 2024-3-11

[3]
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Clin Nutr. 2024-2

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A New Nomogram for Predicting 30-Day In-Hospital Mortality Rate of Acute Cholangitis Patients in the Intensive Care Unit.

Emerg Med Int. 2023-8-10

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Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci. 2023-4

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